Will I be pregnant before I turn 34?
64
127Ṁ7291
resolved Jun 6
Resolved
NO
This market resolves to YES if I get a positive pregnancy test before June 3rd 2022.
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...is this market OK?
"Buying a small amount of no, my research shows that the correct price is around 39% for a 33 year old woman getting pregnant in 3 months, assuming regular unprotected sex." To be honest, that seems kind of low. This site says 68%, which is much more plausible: https://www.verywellfamily.com/how-quickly-can-you-expect-to-get-pregnant-1960290
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YES pays out faster than NO comes due. I would expect people in this community to be better at causing things they really want to happen to happen than average.
Buying a small amount of no, my research shows that the correct price is around 39% for a 33 year old woman getting pregnant in 3 months, assuming regular unprotected sex.
Good luck ^_^
Buying some yes to profit from the hedging (good luck Elena!)
Buying some no as a hedge...

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