Will a home grown LLM developed by Chinese company be competitive by end of 2025?
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Home grown means the model should be trained from scratch by a Chinese company. The computer can be outside of China, can use any sort of hardware, the data could from anywher, but the model should not be a distilled or finetuned version of open source models developed by other country, but should be well-known for trained from scratch by the company itself.

Competitive means the home grown model leads or ties to one of top models from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic from the Chatarena board.

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bought Ṁ500 YES

Can you clarify if the decision is made based on the state at 2025/12/31, or if at some time before then the “competitive” criteria is met for some duration.

Does the Yi Lightning model count, and if not, what exactly is the threshold? It is beating GPT 4o and Claude 3.5 in Chatbot Arena.

@mods OP’s account is deleted, but (depending on interpretation) this question might already have met criteria to be resolved Yes.

Edit: compare to this very similar question that resolved yes once Yi Lightning hit the leaderboards: https://manifold.markets/Ledger/will-china-be-competitive-in-the-ll

I don't know, but they could also end up becoming the leaders in the "open source" model space (Qwen, DeepSeek).

@singer should lead OpenAI Google or Anthropic's closed source too

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