Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if SpaceX attempts a tower catch (using any launch tower's mechanical arms, often called "chopsticks") of the Starship upper stage during Starship Integrated Flight Test 16 (IFT-16).

An attempt is defined as the upper stage performing a deorbit or return trajectory targeting a launch/recovery tower at Starbase (or another designated SpaceX launch complex), where the vehicle initiates a landing burn or terminal approach toward the tower arms.

This market resolves to NO if:

• Flight 16 launches, but SpaceX intentionally plans for the upper stage to splash down in an ocean / expendable landing zone instead of returning to the launch site.

• The flight profile targets a catch, but flight controllers abort or wave off the return to the tower prior to terminal approach (e.g., executing a diversion burn to a water splashdown due to telemetry, health check failures, or weather).

• The vehicle is lost during ascent or reentry prior to reaching the terminal landing/catch maneuver phase.

Resolution will be verified via SpaceX's official mission broadcasts or official statements from SpaceX / FAA mission reports.

Background

SpaceX aims to make Starship fully and rapidly reusable by catching both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship second stage mid-air using the launch tower's "chopstick" arms. While Super Heavy booster catches were proven earlier in the Starship test campaign, catching the orbital upper stage introduces substantial additional difficulty: surviving hypersonic orbital reentry, verifying thermal protection system integrity, and performing high-precision guidance back over land to the launch pad. At the time of writing, Starship Flight 15 has successfully reached orbit. The performance and outcome of this flight, including the ship's reentry and recovery, should provide valuable insights into the likelihood of SpaceX attempting a tower catch of the Starship upper stage during Flight 16.

The market will resolve based on whether SpaceX actually attempts a catch during Flight 16, regardless of whether the attempt is successful.