Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if SpaceX successfully catches the Starship upper stage (the spacecraft/second stage) mid-air using the launch tower mechanical arms ("chopsticks" / "Mechazilla") during the mission officially designated by SpaceX as Starship Flight 16. The ship has to be catched without explosion in the next 15 minutes after catch.

This market resolves to NO if Starship Flight 16 launches and any of the following occur:

• The upper stage is destroyed prior to or during a catch attempt (e.g., loss of vehicle during ascent, reentry, or landing burn).

• The upper stage diverts to an ocean splashdown or soft-lands elsewhere instead of being caught by the tower arms.

• A catch is attempted at the tower but fails (e.g., the vehicle impacts the tower, falls through the arms, or explodes upon/during contact).

• SpaceX does not attempt to catch the Starship upper stage during Flight 16.

If the Flight 16 mission profile is cancelled, postponed, or redesignated prior to launch, this market remains open until the flight officially designated as Starship Flight 16 takes place. If SpaceX permanently cancels the Starship test program without flying Flight 16, this market will resolve to NO.

Resolution will be verified via official SpaceX announcements, livestream broadcast footage on the SpaceX Starship mission page, or confirmed reporting from reputable aerospace news organizations.

Background

SpaceX first demonstrated catching the 71-meter Super Heavy first-stage booster with the "chopstick" arms of the Starbase launch tower (nicknamed Mechazilla) during Flight 5 in October 2024. The long-term architecture of the Starship system requires full and rapid reusability for both the booster and the upper stage spacecraft.

At the time of writing, Starship Flight 15 has successfully reached orbit. The performance and outcome of this flight, including the ship's reentry and recovery, should provide valuable insights into the likelihood of SpaceX attempting and succeeding a tower catch of the Starship upper stage during Flight 16.