Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to YES if SpaceX attempts to catch the Super Heavy booster using the launch tower's mechanical arms ("chopsticks" / "Mechazilla") during the Starship Flight 16 mission.

• This includes any flight where a booster return burn is initiated with the declared intent of returning to the launch tower, or where the booster steers toward the tower for a catch, even if:

  • The catch attempt is aborted mid-flight (e.g., automated or manual divert to a water splashdown).

  • The booster misses the arms, crashes, or is destroyed during or immediately after the attempt.

• This market resolves to NO if:

  • SpaceX explicitly plans and executes an expendable flight, offshore soft splashdown, or ocean ditching for the booster without any intent or attempt to catch it at the launch tower.

  • The booster suffers an anomaly or failure during ascent or hot-staging that prevents it from ever beginning a return/boostback sequence toward the launch site, and SpaceX's official mission profile did not include an active catch attempt command.

• If Starship Flight 16 is cancelled, permanently renamed without flying, or does not launch before January 1, 2028, the market will resolve according to standard platform rules or remain open until the next designated Starship orbital/suborbital test flight occurs.

• Primary resolution sources will be the official SpaceX live broadcast, official SpaceX mission updates on spacex.com, or verified statements from SpaceX leadership and official social channels (e.g., @SpaceX).

Background

SpaceX designed the Starship launch and catch tower ("Mechazilla") to recover the Super Heavy booster mid-air using massive mechanical chopstick arms. SpaceX demonstrated the first successful tower catch during Starship Flight 5 in October 2024.

For example, concerning last Flight 15 the answer to this same question would have been resolved by a YES, since the goal after liftoff was to catch even if that was aborted afterwhile.