Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if SpaceX attempts and successfully catches the Super Heavy booster using a launch tower mechanical arms ("chopsticks") during the Starship Flight 16 test mission.

The catch will be considered successful if:

• The Super Heavy booster returns to the launch site and is captured and held suspended by the tower arms without sustaining catastrophic structural destruction or dropping to the ground/pad.

This market resolves to NO if:

• SpaceX diverts the booster to an ocean/water splashdown (whether planned, manually triggered, or aborted automatically).

• The booster is destroyed, explodes, crashes, or drops during the descent or catch attempt.

• Flight 16 launches without an intended booster catch attempt.

• The booster is lost or destroyed prior to reaching the tower catch phase (e.g., during ascent or boostback).

Resolution will be verified using the official SpaceX mission webcast or official post-mission statements from SpaceX and Elon Musk.

Background

SpaceX first demonstrated the capture of a returning Super Heavy booster with the launch tower's "chopsticks" during Starship Flight 5 in October 2024. Flight 16 follows early iterations of Block 3 hardware as SpaceX continues operational testing for fully reusable orbital operations.