Will Catnee's dominance of AI risk last? Will this market get any traders besides me? Will this blatent attempt to make short term profits work? Tune in next time on Manifold Markets!
The Market in question:
If the displayed value of the above market ever reaches 10% before market close and after the creation of this market, then this market resolves YES. If otherwise, this market resolves NO
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,122 | |
| 2 | Ṁ572 | |
| 3 | Ṁ535 | |
| 4 | Ṁ365 | |
| 5 | Ṁ295 |
Great market 🤑. Will be looking to create my own like it!
This can be the first 😬
https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-artificial-superintelligence-e
Do we have faith that AI will resolve this correctly after our demise? Is there a chance AI resolves this market prematurely to hasten our demise?
@deagol I just took the 11% limit order guy's limit orders in another market and now his balance must be less than 6k. So some those 11% limit orders are going to be cancelled atm
(His balance currently shows 12k but should update in a few minutes)
Seems fairly clear then? They're one of the people who for questionable reasons try to bid up the AI doom markets, and they have enough faith in their limit orders to bet NO here.
@jskf What are these questionable reasons? I mean I’m literally “questioning the reasons” 😅. I would understand having a higher personal p(doom) but I’m not sure why you’d also bet the rest of the p(doom) market will agree with you, especially when you are personally most of the reason that market isn’t already at 10%. So maybe I’m missing something here.
Oh, since you were asking here I thought your question was mostly about the bet here. I think some of the possible questionable reasons for betting up doom markets are:
A belief that "betting your true beliefs" is honorable.
Failing to understand that if you're right you don't actually win. This one seems very unlikely, though.
Trolling people who expect doom markets will go down because the incentives point in that direction. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain active on Manifold" (or at least longer than you're willing to lock up your mana).
Expectation that people like Catnee will bet the market up even further.
Hope that if the market is high, people will take AI risk more seriously (lmao).
@jskf @alextes not sure if that analysis holds given @Jelle is actually holding pretty significant NO positions in many AI doom markets, including 3.7k in the 2030 one, at a cost of 21%. Also, their balance can’t cover those 11% limits. I suspect the bet here was a miscalculation or hedge gone bad.
@alextes While the linked market was at ~20% there was an arbitrage of buying NO on the linked market, setting a limit YES order at 11% on the linked market, and betting NO here. Then you win on the linked market if it goes to 10% and you win here if it doesn't. It's pretty easy to miscalculate such bets, but they can work.
@DylanSlagh What do you mean with "reaches 10%"? From the top or from the bottom? Or exactly 10%?
@CertaintyOfVictory If the displayed value of that market is ever at or below 10% after the creation of this market, this market resolves YES
