Will the next President of the United States die in office?
187
1kṀ33k
2030
19%
chance

The next President of the United States will be inaugurated on 25 January 2025. Will he or she die while in office?

Politics
US Politics
Trump
Joe Biden
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There is arbitrage opportunities available here with what appears to be identical markets:

https://manifold.markets/resourceabet/will-the-next-president-die-while-i

On life table base rates this should be ~0.37 for Biden, ~0.27 for Trump, and Biden is currently trading at 0.48 🤔

https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

@prodict part of that probability mass should be eaten up by the chance of getting a debilitating condition and resigning before dying.

bought Ṁ100 NO

Does it count if the president has health problems, goes to the hospital for an extended period of time, is replaced by their VP, and then dies before the end of the term?

bought Ṁ150 YES

@ZaneMiller it should, imo.

@ZaneMiller I just got a notification that said "No one liked your comment"

@ZaneMiller

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31% chance
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