Will the next President of the United States die in office?
187
1kṀ33k2030
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The next President of the United States will be inaugurated on 25 January 2025. Will he or she die while in office?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Who will be the next (current or former) US president to die, aside from Carter?
Who will be the next world leader to die violently while in office?
Will a USA president die on the fourth of July in 2024 or 2025?
2% chance
If Donald Trump is elected US President in 2024, will he die in office?
14% chance
Will a U.S. President die in office before 2034?
31% chance
If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office?
19% chance
Will the president elected in 2024 die before inauguration day 2029
24% chance
Will a president of the USA die while in office before the end of 2050
58% chance
Will Biden or Trump die from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
38% chance
Sort by:
There is arbitrage opportunities available here with what appears to be identical markets:
https://manifold.markets/resourceabet/will-the-next-president-die-while-i
On life table base rates this should be ~0.37 for Biden, ~0.27 for Trump, and Biden is currently trading at 0.48 🤔
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
@prodict part of that probability mass should be eaten up by the chance of getting a debilitating condition and resigning before dying.
People are also trading
Related questions
Who will be the next (current or former) US president to die, aside from Carter?
Who will be the next world leader to die violently while in office?
Will a USA president die on the fourth of July in 2024 or 2025?
2% chance
If Donald Trump is elected US President in 2024, will he die in office?
14% chance
Will a U.S. President die in office before 2034?
31% chance
If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office?
19% chance
Will the president elected in 2024 die before inauguration day 2029
24% chance
Will a president of the USA die while in office before the end of 2050
58% chance
Will Biden or Trump die from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
38% chance