Will the next President of the United States die in office?
Plus
183
Ṁ33k2030
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The next President of the United States will be inaugurated on 25 January 2025. Will he or she die while in office?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
There is arbitrage opportunities available here with what appears to be identical markets:
https://manifold.markets/resourceabet/will-the-next-president-die-while-i
On life table base rates this should be ~0.37 for Biden, ~0.27 for Trump, and Biden is currently trading at 0.48 🤔
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
@prodict part of that probability mass should be eaten up by the chance of getting a debilitating condition and resigning before dying.
Related questions
Related questions
Will the next president die while in office?
24% chance
Will the next President of the United States die in an office? [Mod Note: Pun Trap]
18% chance
Will a living US President (past or current) pass away before the end of 2024?
14% chance
Will the next President of the USA (elected in 2024) die before the end of their term in office.
18% chance
If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office?
27% chance
Who will be the next US president to die?
Which President will pass away before 2030
Who will be the next (current or former) US president to die, aside from Carter?
Will a president of the USA die while in office before the end of 2050
58% chance
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
38% chance