Will the next President of the United States die in office?
187
1kṀ33k2030
19%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The next President of the United States will be inaugurated on 25 January 2025. Will he or she die while in office?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Who will be the next US President to die?
Who will be the next (current or former) US president to die, aside from Carter?
Will the president elected in 2028 die in office?
18% chance
Who will be the next world leader to die violently while in office?
Will Biden or Trump die from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office?
20% chance
Will the president elected in 2024 die before inauguration day 2029
24% chance
Will the next president (of the USA) last the full term?
79% chance
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
38% chance
Will a US president die in office before the US adds another state
79% chance
Sort by:
There is arbitrage opportunities available here with what appears to be identical markets:
https://manifold.markets/resourceabet/will-the-next-president-die-while-i
On life table base rates this should be ~0.37 for Biden, ~0.27 for Trump, and Biden is currently trading at 0.48 🤔
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
@prodict part of that probability mass should be eaten up by the chance of getting a debilitating condition and resigning before dying.
People are also trading
Related questions
Who will be the next US President to die?
Who will be the next (current or former) US president to die, aside from Carter?
Will the president elected in 2028 die in office?
18% chance
Who will be the next world leader to die violently while in office?
Will Biden or Trump die from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office?
20% chance
Will the president elected in 2024 die before inauguration day 2029
24% chance
Will the next president (of the USA) last the full term?
79% chance
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
38% chance
Will a US president die in office before the US adds another state
79% chance