Among current heads of state, who will be the next to die?
resolved May 13
President of the United Arab Emirates Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan
Queen Elizabeth
Paul Biya
Michel Aoun
The colombian president
Harald V
Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud
President of Cameroon Paul Biya
President of Lebanon Michel Aoun
President of the State of Palestine Mahmoud Abbas
Pope Francis
Governor-General of the Bahamas Sir Cornelius Alvin Smith
Emir of Kuwait Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah
Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei
President of Russia Vladimir Putin
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko
President of Algeria Abdelmadjid Tebboune
Among the heads of state in power as of 02/17/2022, who will die next? Close date updated to 2022-02-26 6:06 pm Close date updated to 2022-03-05 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-01 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-31 8:19 am
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well this was some bullshit. Last time I bet on a market by Duncan.
@M Who was the next to die? "Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan" died. "Someone else" did not die.
Is it in the spirit of the market to make-up rules as you go? This is the person who died. They were the first to die. That is the answer. As a retailer bettor, I am not checking timestamps as to which option was added first or last, I am betting with options available to me at the time. If the correct answer is not the right answer, then that is unjust. From now on in every market I will immediately create an option which states "someone or something else not listed." Or, maybe I shall choose to be reasonable and rational?
@Mirek This is a reasonable perspective! But I think the opposite perspective is also reasonable? I had previously said on the Discord that I'm accepting my ~M$800 loss for jumping on the Khalifa option before reading anything. :)
(See also my reply in the comment thread on the Khalifa option, about how the somone-not-listed option did explicitly stipulate "at the time of death".)
@dreev I am not sure what Discord is or how to access the reading? However, I am just making a decision based on the information available to me. To me it's just disheartening that if a resolution does not stick to the spirit of the question, a precedent is set for even more ornery actions of bad-faith actors. I can accept an instance of tomfoolery on a day such as Prima Aprilis, however, it cheapens the experience for a marketplace which is trying to act seriously. I wish for the best.

@Mirek I'm a bit late to the party, but just so you know now, "Discord" is a real-time chatting platform. You can join Manifold's Discord server here.

hedging. This is all about the resolution decision now
@Giovanni I think the correct resolution of this market would be 75% Khalifa, 25% "Someone else not mentioned"
@SG hmm I'm not sure I agree. Rewarding a "none of the above" seems questionable, but so does rewarding an answer that wasnt a prediction but rather a reaction...
@SG You can't have a none-of-the-above option if you're going to split the difference after none-of-the-above happens. The percentages won't properly add up to 100% if the price of one of the options does not in fact reflect the probability of it happening
It looks like the Khalifa option was added after his actual death (@MichaelWheatley checked the timestamps) and the someone-not-listed does explicitly stipulate "someone not listed at the time of their death". So I'm now thinking that the someone-not-listed option is what's most in the spirit of this market.
@NcyRocks This is the actual answer so it should still receive more weight than @M's more vague answer.
@SG Duncan's comment on @M's answer would seem to grant the premise that you can have a none-of-the-above option in a free response market.
Seems he wasn't actually mentioned at the time of his death?
I will chose this answer as correct in the case that all leaders other than Putin die on the same day.
This is currently Iván Duque Márquez.
I hate that guy
This is probably undervalued.
@Duncan Last time I take investment advice from Duncan.
@Duncan Last time I take Duncan's investment advice.
@Duncan Last time I take Duncan's investment advice.