Among current heads of state, who will be the next to die?
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60
Ṁ40kresolved May 13
100%20%
President of the United Arab Emirates Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan
0.0%Other
0.1%
Queen Elizabeth
0.0%
Paul Biya
0.0%
Biden
0.0%
Michel Aoun
0.0%
The colombian president
0.0%
Harald V
0.0%
Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud
0.0%
President of Cameroon Paul Biya
0.0%
President of Lebanon Michel Aoun
0.0%
President of the State of Palestine Mahmoud Abbas
0.0%
Pope Francis
0.0%
Governor-General of the Bahamas Sir Cornelius Alvin Smith
0.0%
Emir of Kuwait Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah
0.0%
Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei
0.0%
President of Russia Vladimir Putin
0.0%
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy
0.0%
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko
0.0%
President of Algeria Abdelmadjid Tebboune
Among the heads of state in power as of 02/17/2022, who will die next?
Close date updated to 2022-02-26 6:06 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-05 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-05-01 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-05-31 8:19 am
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Is it in the spirit of the market to make-up rules as you go? This is the person who died. They were the first to die. That is the answer. As a retailer bettor, I am not checking timestamps as to which option was added first or last, I am betting with options available to me at the time. If the correct answer is not the right answer, then that is unjust. From now on in every market I will immediately create an option which states "someone or something else not listed." Or, maybe I shall choose to be reasonable and rational?
@Mirek This is a reasonable perspective! But I think the opposite perspective is also reasonable? I had previously said on the Discord that I'm accepting my ~M$800 loss for jumping on the Khalifa option before reading anything. :)
@dreev I am not sure what Discord is or how to access the reading? However, I am just making a decision based on the information available to me. To me it's just disheartening that if a resolution does not stick to the spirit of the question, a precedent is set for even more ornery actions of bad-faith actors. I can accept an instance of tomfoolery on a day such as Prima Aprilis, however, it cheapens the experience for a marketplace which is trying to act seriously. I wish for the best.
@Giovanni I think the correct resolution of this market would be 75% Khalifa, 25% "Someone else not mentioned"
@SG hmm I'm not sure I agree. Rewarding a "none of the above" seems questionable, but so does rewarding an answer that wasnt a prediction but rather a reaction...
@SG You can't have a none-of-the-above option if you're going to split the difference after none-of-the-above happens. The percentages won't properly add up to 100% if the price of one of the options does not in fact reflect the probability of it happening
It looks like the Khalifa option was added after his actual death (@MichaelWheatley checked the timestamps) and the someone-not-listed does explicitly stipulate "someone not listed at the time of their death". So I'm now thinking that the someone-not-listed option is what's most in the spirit of this market.
@Duncan, this market should be resolved. https://gulfnews.com/uae/uae-president-sheikh-khalifa-bin-zayed-passes-away-1.1652437049728
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