Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Khamenei specifically, the market will wait for official confirmation of death before resolving.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Barney Frank , followed by Neal Dunn and Lech Wałęsa are most likely. See the market for live updates (15 traders, as of May 19, 2026).

(Add Answers) Which political figures/World leaders will pass before the end of 2026?

MANIFOLD

(Add Answers) Which political figures/World leaders will pass before the end of 2026?

Ṁ715Ṁ845

Dec 31

74%

Barney Frank

70%

Neal Dunn

57%

Lech Wałęsa

57%

Mitch McConnell

55%

Ben Sasse

54%

Frank J. Guarini

54%

Michiko

50%

Bajrakitiyabha

50%

Joseph Estrada

50%

Wes Uhlman

42%

Imelda Marcos

38%

Jean Chrétien

38%

Douglas Hurd

36%

Harald V of Norway

36%

Kay Granger

36%

Dennis Skinner

34%

Clint Eastwood

31%

Akihito

30%

Paul Keating

29%

Joe Biden

Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Khamenei specifically, the market will wait for official confirmation of death before resolving.

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