Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Khamenei specifically, the market will wait for official confirmation of death before resolving.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Neal Dunn, followed by Lech Wałęsa and Ben Sasse are most likely. See the market for live updates (13 traders, as of Apr 3, 2026).

(Add Answers) Which political figures/World leaders will pass before the end of 2026?

MANIFOLD

(Add Answers) Which political figures/World leaders will pass before the end of 2026?

Ṁ690Ṁ738

Dec 31

72%

Neal Dunn

59%

Lech Wałęsa

55%

Ben Sasse

54%

Frank J. Guarini

54%

Michiko

54%

Bajrakitiyabha

50%

Joseph Estrada

50%

Wes Uhlman

50%

Chuck Grassley

42%

Imelda Marcos

38%

Jean Chrétien

38%

Douglas Hurd

36%

George Ariyoshi

36%

Harald V of Norway

36%

Kay Granger

36%

Dennis Skinner

36%

Mitch McConnell

34%

Clint Eastwood

31%

Akihito

30%

Paul Keating

Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Khamenei specifically, the market will wait for official confirmation of death before resolving.

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