Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2035, a major equity market correction is triggered primarily by AI‑ and robotics‑driven reductions in the economic value of human labor, as defined below.

What counts as a “major equity market correction”?

For this market, a “major correction” means:

• At least one of these broad indices:

  • S&P 500

  • MSCI World

  • MSCI ACWI

• Suffers a peak‑to‑trough decline of ≥30% in nominal terms,

• With the peak and trough no more than 18 months apart.

If multiple such corrections occur, it is enough for one to meet the YES criteria below.

What counts as a “significant reduction in the value of human labor”?

For purposes of this market, this refers to AI and robotics adoption making large groups of workers substantially less valuable to employers, in a way that is:

• Macro‑relevant: documented as a major factor in unemployment/underemployment, wage stagnation/decline, or a falling labor share of income in advanced economies (e.g. US, EU, UK, Japan).

• Specifically attributed to AI/robotics: not just generic “technology” or trade, but automation driven by machine learning, large models, robotics, and related systems displacing or devaluing human work, especially in white‑collar or service roles.

• Persistent and structural, not just a brief cyclical downturn.

Think: a widely acknowledged “AI labor shock” rather than ordinary business‑cycle fluctuations.

What does “triggered primarily by” AI & robotics mean?

This market resolves YES only if, in post‑crisis analyses, the central narrative explaining the crash is that:

• AI/robotics sharply reduced the economic value of human labor, and

• That labor shock was a main driver of the market correction — for example, via:

  • Collapsing consumer demand as workers’ incomes lag behind,

  • Political or regulatory shocks reacting to mass displacement,

  • Severe earnings or valuation repricing for labor‑intensive firms due to AI adoption dynamics.

As a rule of thumb, YES requires that:

• Multiple high‑credibility sources (e.g., major central banks, BIS/IMF/OECD reports, and leading financial/econ outlets or academic studies) describe AI/robotics‑driven labor displacement or wage pressure as the primary or a clearly dominant cause of the correction, not just a side note.

If causes are mixed, the resolver should judge whether the AI‑labor dynamic is framed as the main story of the crash, versus background context.

Examples that WOULD resolve YES

• By 2032, the S&P 500 falls 35% over 10 months, and broad post‑mortems argue that:

  • Rapid AI/robotics deployment wiped out or severely devalued a large share of human jobs,

  • This caused persistent wage/income weakness and/or political shock that undermined corporate earnings and risk sentiment,

  • And major institutions treat the “AI labor shock” as the main explanation for the crash.

• Global indices drop >30% after a wave of AI‑driven automation in services leads to a clear, documented collapse in labor income and a widely recognized AI‑driven demand shortfall, identified by central banks and the IMF as the primary cause of the downturn and market crash.
  
  

Examples that would NOT resolve YES

• A ≥30% crash mostly blamed on:

  • A housing or credit bubble,

  • Geopolitical conflict or energy shock,

  • A pandemic,

  • Routine monetary tightening or debt crisis,
    even if AI and automation are occasionally mentioned.

• A noticeable AI‑related selloff (say, a 15–20% drop) that is:

  • Too small (<30%), or

  • Confined mainly to a sector (e.g. AI/tech stocks) without a qualifying move in a broad index.

• A large crash where commentators list many factors and AI/robotics‑labor issues are at most a secondary or ambiguous contributor.
  
  

Resolution details

• The event (major correction) must occur before January 1st 2035; the market creator/resolver may wait for post‑event analyses to accumulate before deciding.

• Resolution should rely on:

  • Data for major indices from standard sources (e.g. index providers, financial data vendors), and

  • Post‑mortems and reports from reputable institutions (central banks, BIS, IMF/OECD, major newspapers/magazines, and well‑regarded academic or policy work).

• If no qualifying correction occurs by the deadline, or if any qualifying correction is not primarily attributed to an AI/robotics‑driven labor shock under the criteria above, this market resolves NO.