Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2029, the US federal government enacts a stimulus package of at least $500 billion in projected net fiscal cost whose primary stated purpose is to mitigate large‑scale unemployment or worker displacement attributed to artificial intelligence or automation.

What counts as a qualifying “stimulus package”?

For this market:

• It must be federal legislation (an Act of Congress signed by the President or enacted over a veto) that:

  • Is commonly described in official and media coverage as an “economic stimulus,” “relief,” or similar package; and

  • Has a projected net fiscal cost of ≥ $500 billion over its official budget window, based on CBO, OMB, or broadly accepted estimates.

• It can be:

  • A single omnibus law (like ARRA or the CARES Act), or

  • A clearly branded package of closely related laws passed within a 6‑month window and explicitly treated by the administration and Congress as one package (e.g. “AI Economic Stabilization Package”), whose combined net cost meets the $500 billion threshold.

Monetary‑policy actions by the Federal Reserve do not count. State or local packages do not count.

What makes it an “AI unemployment” package?

To resolve YES, there must be strong evidence that:

1. AI/automation is central to the stated rationale.

   • The text of the law, official section titles, congressional findings, or White House / Cabinet‑level fact sheets and press releases explicitly describe the package as responding to widespread unemployment, job loss, or worker displacement caused by or strongly linked to AI, automation, or advanced technologies.

   • Phrases like “AI‑driven job displacement,” “automation‑related unemployment,” “job losses due to artificial intelligence,” etc., should appear in official descriptions, not just media opinion pieces.

2. The main measures target workers/households affected by unemployment.
   A majority of the fiscal cost should go to one or more of:

   • Direct cash transfers, tax credits, or income support intended to maintain household incomes in the face of AI‑linked job loss.

   • Expanded or enhanced unemployment insurance, wage insurance, wage subsidies, or payroll support designed to keep workers employed or soften income shocks.

   • Large‑scale retraining, reskilling, or job‑guarantee programs that are explicitly framed as responses to AI/automation‑driven unemployment.

   • Other clearly worker‑focused measures whose primary stated purpose is cushioning the employment/income effects of AI/automation.

Packages whose primary emphasis is industrial policy (e.g. subsidies for data centers, chip fabs, or AI R&D) or general “competitiveness” without a central narrative of AI‑driven job loss do not qualify, even if they mention job creation.

The unemployment can be ongoing or anticipated (e.g. a pre‑emptive response to forecast mass displacement), as long as the official framing ties it specifically to AI/automation and to large numbers of workers or major job categories.

Things that explicitly do not count

• Routine extensions or modest expansions of unemployment insurance or workforce‑training programs that are not clearly branded as a major AI/automation response.

• Smaller packages (< $500 billion) even if they are explicitly about AI and unemployment.

• Bills focused primarily on:

  • Supporting AI companies’ infrastructure, tax treatment, or R&D;

  • General “future of work” programs without a strong AI/automation unemployment framing;

  • Narrow sectoral bailouts (e.g. one industry) unless the broader package meets all criteria.

Evidence and resolution

The market creator (and Manifold admins if needed) will look at:

• The enacted bill text on Congress.gov;

• CBO and/or OMB scoring and summaries;

• Official White House, Treasury, Labor, or other federal agency factsheets and press releases;

• Coverage by major, reputable news outlets.

“Strong evidence” means that multiple such sources clearly support that:

1. The package meets the size and timing requirements; and

2. It is explicitly framed as a response to large‑scale unemployment / worker displacement attributed to AI or automation.

If no such package is enacted by 23:59 US Eastern time on December 31, 2028, the market resolves NO.

If the status of the US federal government, the availability of information, or other extreme developments make resolution according to the above criteria impossible or meaningless, the market may resolve N/A at the discretion of the creator / Manifold admins.