@MarcusAbramovitch and Remmelt have made a $5k:$25k bet on exactly this question. Links to EA Forum and LessWrong where they announced the bet.
An AI market crash will be defined, for the purposes of this bet, as at least 2 out of 3 of the following criteria being met.
Here are our criteria:
OpenAI's 2025 or 2026 annual revenue is below $1.6 billion.
Anthropic's 2025 or 2026 annual revenue is below $400 million.
Nvidia’s data center revenue in any quarter from now to Q4 2026 is below $8.5 billion.
I'm opening this question purely out of personal curiosity and it has nothing to do with my current employer. I'll resolve the question based on how Marcus and Remmelt decide, and I won't be trading on it since that would clearly constitute insider trading.
1,000Ah, I just figured out that the dates are wrong. FYI traders that this should be "by the end of 2026" and the resolving date will be Jan 1 2027. I've reached out to some moderators to change it.
Nevermind, the date is good, I need another coffee.