Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on whether and when Russia transitions to a democratic political system according to major independent international political research indices:

• Yes options (e.g., "Yes, by 2030", "Yes, between 2031 and 2040", etc.): Resolves YES if Russia is classified as a democracy—such as achieving a score of 6.00 or higher ("Flawed democracy" or "Full democracy") on the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Index, or being classified as "Free" by Freedom House—during the specified timeframe. The option corresponding to the first timeframe in which this threshold is reached resolves YES; all other "Yes" options resolve NO.

• "No, Russia will remain an autocracy indefinitely": Resolves YES if Russia continuously retains an autocratic governance structure without transitioning to a democratic regime or a distinct alternative non-democratic form of government.

• "No, Russia will transition to a different form of non-democratic governance": Resolves YES if Russia transitions from its current regime structure into another distinct form of non-democratic rule (such as a military junta or totalitarian state) without qualifying as a democracy.

If specific indices cease publication, resolution will rely on comparable consensus classifications from reputable political science organizations (such as the V-Dem Institute or Freedom House).

Background

Russia is currently classified as an authoritarian regime by major international monitoring organizations. In the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Index, Russia holds a low score that places it within the "Authoritarian regime" category (scores below 4.00). Freedom House similarly classifies Russia as "Not Free," citing restricted civil liberties, political repression, and lack of competitive elections.

Political science metrics evaluate democratic transitions using indicators such as free and fair electoral processes, political pluralism, executive constraints, judicial independence, and civil liberties.