Resolution criteria

This market resolves independently for each listed platform based on whether it is officially banned or forced to cease operations by a national regulatory or governmental authority before 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2029.

• An answer resolves YES if:

  • A national government or regulatory authority (e.g., the U.S. CFTC, DOJ, or equivalent national regulator in a major jurisdiction) issues a formal ban, enforcement order, or court ruling that legally prohibits the platform from operating in its primary jurisdiction or country of registration, OR

  • The platform is forced into a complete, indefinite shutdown or nationwide block across its primary market due to government/regulatory enforcement actions.

• An answer resolves NO if the platform continues to operate legally (or remains accessible under its current operating posture) through December 31, 2029 without such a ban or forced shutdown taking effect.

• Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Standard geographic IP-blocking / geo-restrictions (e.g., a non-US platform blocking US residents from trading while continuing to operate internationally, or state-level sports betting restrictions) do not trigger a YES unless the platform is specifically banned nationwide or forced to shut down entirely.

  • Temporary injunctions or enforcement notices that are subsequently overturned or settled with the platform remaining operational will resolve NO unless an operational ban remains in effect at the close of 2029.

  • "None of the above" resolves YES if none of the listed platforms meet the criteria for a ban before 2030, and NO if any of the listed platforms meet the criteria.

  • Anyone may add additional prediction or forecasting platforms to the market.

Background

Regulatory scrutiny over real-money prediction markets and event contract platforms has varied widely across jurisdictions:

• Kalshi: Operates as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In late 2024, Kalshi won a federal court victory against the CFTC allowing it to list congressional election contracts, though CFTC regulatory rulemaking regarding event contracts remains contested.

• Polymarket: Operates on a public blockchain and settled with the CFTC in 2022, agreeing to block US residents from trading on its platform. It operates offshore while continuing to face regulatory debate globally.

• PredictIt: Operates under an experimental academic no-action letter originally granted by the CFTC in 2014, which was rescinded by CFTC staff in 2022 and subsequently subjected to protracted federal litigation.

• Metaculus and Manifold: Primarily operate play-money, reputation-based, or sweepstakes/charity-style forecasting models, putting them under different legal scrutiny than licensed real-money commodity derivative exchanges.