The European Union has 27 member countries. At the end of 2027, how many of these countries will have far-right governments? A national government is defined as far-right if either:

1) the most powerful government official belongs to a far-right party, OR
2) a far-right party is part of the governing coalition, AND has at least 20% of the seats in the national legislature (the lower house, if bicameral).

A "far-right" party is defined as one whose political position on Wikipedia includes the term "far right", "radical right", or "extreme right". This includes parties like National Rally in France, Fratelli d'Italia in Italy, AfD in Germany, and so on (generally, parties in the ECR and ID groups of the European Parliament).

As of now (January 2024), by this definition, there are four EU member countries with far right governments (Finland, Hungary, Italy, Sweden). However, far-right parties have surged across Europe in the last few years:

https://twitter.com/alyssamvance/status/1735667785030578667

There are now eight EU countries where far-right parties are leading in polls (France, Italy, Hungary, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia), and four more countries where they are in second place (Germany, Sweden, Romania, Estonia), so it is likely (though not certain) that more far-right governments will be elected.

For purposes of this market:

• The political affiliations of heads of state who have less power than their head of government, where the two roles are separate (eg. President of Germany), do not matter.

• This market only tracks the government in power at the end of 2027 (December 31, 2027). If a far right party gains power, and then loses it before the end of 2027, it does not count.

• If a country has formally exited the EU before the end of 2027, it does not count. However, if a country joins the EU between now and then, it may count if it otherwise meets the criteria.

• Simply being the largest party in the legislature does not count, if they are not part of a governing coalition (eg. Law and Justice in Poland, after their 2023 election).

• If an election has happened, but a coalition has not formed yet (as in the Netherlands), the country will be judged based on its previous (caretaker, demissionary, or lame-duck) government.