Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, during the second Trump administration (on or before January 20, 2029), federal legislation is enacted into law that reduces the discretionary budget of all four of the following entities by at least 10%:

1. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)

2. National Institutes of Health (NIH)

3. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

4. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)

Details and Rules:

• Baseline: The 10% (or greater) reduction will be evaluated by comparing the final enacted discretionary funding for any single fiscal year (FY 2026, FY 2027, FY 2028, or FY 2029) against the enacted funding levels of the fiscal year immediately preceding it, or against the FY 2025 enacted levels.

• "Become Law": The cuts must be codified through federal legislation passed by Congress and signed into law by the President (or enacted via veto override). Executive budget proposals, workforce reductions via attrition, or temporary administrative impoundments do not count unless they are formally enacted as statutory budget cuts by Congress.

• All-or-Nothing: The 10%+ cuts must be implemented for all four specified agencies/departments. If only some of the agencies receive cuts of this magnitude while others are spared, the market resolves to NO.

• Source of Truth: Enacted statutory text of federal appropriations bills (available on Congress.gov) and official analysis reports from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

Background

The Trump administration's FY 2026 and FY 2027 budget requests proposed significant cuts to federal health agencies, including a 26% discretionary budget reduction for HHS, restructuring the NIH, and slashing billions from the CDC. While the administration has pursued workforce reductions and unilateral spending freezes—some of which have faced legal challenges under the Impoundment Control Act—the power of the purse rests with Congress. This market tracks whether the administration successfully coordinates with Congress to codify these deep, across-the-board funding cuts into federal law.