Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, during Donald Trump’s second presidential administration (defined as beginning on January 20, 2025, and ending when he leaves office or on January 20, 2029, whichever is earlier), there is an outbreak of a novel pathogen or a significantly mutated novel strain of an existing pathogen (excluding SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 variants already known prior to January 20, 2025, and seasonal influenza) that meets at least two (2) of the following four (4) conditions:

1. Official WHO Characterization: The World Health Organization (WHO) explicitly characterizes or declares the outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication, report, or press briefing (see WHO Emergencies). A declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone does not qualify unless the term "pandemic" is also explicitly used by the WHO.

2. Global Mortality Threshold: The novel pathogen causes at least 1,000,000 estimated or confirmed deaths globally within any single continuous 365-day period during the administration, as reported by the WHO, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), or another consensus epidemiologic tracking authority.

3. Severe Statewide Mandates in the US: The U.S. Federal Government declares a national public health emergency, and at least ten (10) U.S. states institute statewide "stay-at-home," "safer-at-home," or "shelter-in-place" executive orders restricting non-essential travel and business operations for at least 14 consecutive days.

4. Significant Global Travel Restrictions: At least thirty (30) countries globally, including the United States, impose mandatory travel entry bans or strict quarantine requirements for all incoming travelers from multiple foreign nations for a period of at least 30 consecutive days specifically to contain the spread of the pathogen.

If at least two of these criteria are not met before Donald Trump leaves office or January 20, 2029 (whichever is earlier), this market will resolve to NO.

Background

While the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic has passed, epidemiological models suggest the risk of another major outbreak remains elevated. Forecasting agencies such as Airfinity estimate a 27.5% probability of another "COVID-scale" pandemic occurring within the next decade, driven by factors like urbanization, climate change, and globalization. Under the second Trump administration, U.S. health agencies have undergone substantial changes. The administration has prioritized deregulation, proposed consolidation of NIH centers, and appointed figures like Dr. Jay Bhattacharya to head health leadership. Public concern over pandemic potential has been periodically renewed by active biological developments, including the ongoing spread of H5N1 avian influenza in U.S. dairy cattle, as well as localized scares such as the Hantavirus outbreak on the cruise ship MV Hondius.