Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if all three of the following U.S. federal entities are officially abolished, dissolved, or disbanded before January 1, 2050:

1. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)

2. The National Institutes of Health (NIH)

3. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

If any of these three entities continue to exist as active federal departments, agencies, or operating divisions under the U.S. government on January 1, 2050, the market will resolve to NO.

Clarifications & Edge Cases:

• All Three Required: For a YES resolution, all three specified entities must be abolished. If only one or two are abolished (e.g., the NIH and CDC are dissolved, but HHS remains), the market will resolve to NO.

• Renaming vs. Abolition: A simple rebranding, renaming, or minor restructuring where the core organization, leadership, and functions remain intact under a different name (for example, if the CDC is renamed to the "National Epidemiology Agency" but continues to operate as the nation's health protection agency) will not count as being abolished.

• Dissolution/Successorship: To be considered abolished, the entity must be legally dissolved by an act of Congress or executive action, and its primary functions must be either entirely terminated, privatized, or distributed to unrelated departments such that no direct successor federal agency exists.

• Source of Truth: Official legislative records (e.g., Congress.gov) or executive orders published in the Federal Register.

Background

Calls to abolish or fundamentally restructure federal health agencies have surfaced during periods of political realignment. For instance, during the second Trump administration, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. proposed deep budget cuts to both the CDC and NIH and advocated for consolidating specific offices (such as the CDC's chronic disease and global health centers) into a proposed new entity called the Administration for a Healthy America.

Despite recurring proposals to overhaul, downsize, or decentralize these agencies, completely abolishing cabinet-level departments like HHS or major research institutions like the NIH requires significant legislative cooperation from Congress, making total dissolution a rare event in U.S. administrative history. This market tracks whether long-term political shifts will result in the complete elimination of all three public health institutions before mid-century.