Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before the conclusion of Donald Trump's second presidential administration (scheduled to end at 12:00 PM EST on January 20, 2029), the United States federal government officially abolishes, bans, or revokes regulatory authorization/approval for all human vaccines across the board, making the administration and sale of any vaccine illegal nationwide.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Specific rules:

• "All vaccines as a whole" requires a comprehensive prohibition. If only specific vaccines (such as COVID-19, mRNA, or MMR combination vaccines) are restricted, delisted, or revoked, the market does not resolve YES.

• Banning federal mandates, altering CDC recommendations, changing childhood schedules, or removing liability protections does not satisfy the criteria; there must be an actual prohibition on approval, distribution, or administration of all human vaccines.

• If an act of Congress or federal executive action institutes a complete ban but it is stayed, enjoined, or struck down by federal courts before taking practical legal effect and remains non-operational through the end of the term, it will resolve NO.

• Resolution will be verified via official actions documented in the Federal Register or official publications from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Background

The second Trump administration appointed Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), drawing scrutiny regarding federal vaccine policy. Actions under the administration have focused on altering CDC childhood immunization recommendations, pushing to unbundle combination shots (such as the MMR vaccine) into separate visits, investigating vaccine safety data, and opposing mandatory vaccination requirements.

However, neither Donald Trump nor HHS leadership has proposed a complete, blanket ban on all vaccines. Under existing law, vaccine approvals fall under the authority of the FDA via the Public Health Service Act and the Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, while school mandates remain governed by individual state laws. Completely abolishing or banning all human vaccines nationwide would represent an unprecedented regulatory and statutory reversal requiring extensive executive and congressional actions that would face immediate legal hurdles.