Resolution criteria

This market resolves to Yes if, at any point during Donald Trump’s second presidential administration (commencing January 20, 2025, and ending when he leaves office, scheduled for January 20, 2029), the United States federal government completely bans, outlaws, or revokes FDA approval/authorization for all human vaccines, rendering the manufacture, sale, distribution, or administration of all vaccines illegal or entirely unavailable under federal law in the United States.

This market resolves to No if at least one human vaccine remains legally approved, authorized, or permitted for manufacture, sale, distribution, or administration in the United States under federal law at the time the second Trump administration ends.

Clarifications & Edge Cases:

• Mandates vs. Availability: The elimination of federal, state, or school vaccine mandates (compulsory requirements to get vaccinated) does not constitute "abolishing vaccines" and will not resolve this market to Yes, as long as vaccines remain legally available for voluntary use.

• Schedule Changes: Modifying, reducing, or removing vaccines from the CDC’s recommended childhood or adult immunization schedules does not count as "abolishing" them if the vaccines themselves remain legally approved and available on the U.S. market.

• Partial Bans: Banning or withdrawing specific vaccines (such as COVID-19 or influenza vaccines) does not resolve this market to Yes if other vaccines (e.g., polio, MMR, tetanus) remain legally available.

Sources of Truth: Resolves based on official federal actions, including executive orders from the White House, regulations/orders from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) or the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) (such as the FDA Licensed Vaccines List), or reporting from major credible news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).

Background

During Donald Trump’s second administration, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and President Trump have enacted major changes to federal vaccine policy. In August 2026, Trump signed an executive order establishing "Gold Standard Childhood Vaccine Recommendations," which directed federal agencies to reduce the CDC's recommended childhood vaccine schedule.

While the administration has actively campaigned against vaccine mandates and pushed to reduce federal vaccine recommendations, key officials have consistently maintained they do not support a total vaccine ban. RFK Jr. has repeatedly stated that his policy focus is on "medical freedom" and "parental choice," asserting that vaccines should remain available to those who want them. This market monitors whether federal policy shifts toward an absolute ban on all vaccine types.