Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, prior to January 1, 2040 (12:00 AM UTC), all messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines are completely abolished, banned, or withdrawn from commercial availability across major regulatory jurisdictions (specifically including the US Food and Drug Administration [FDA] and the European Medicines Agency [EMA]).

Specifically:

• YES: Prior to January 1, 2040, all market authorizations, licenses, or emergency use authorizations for mRNA-based vaccines are formally revoked or banned worldwide or across major regulators (FDA and EMA), leaving zero mRNA vaccines legally available for administration.

• NO: On or before December 31, 2039, at least one mRNA vaccine retains active regulatory approval, authorization, or licensure and remains commercially available in at least one major regulatory jurisdiction, as verifiable through official registries such as the FDA Vaccine Products List or the EMA Medicines Database.

Official regulatory publications from the FDA, EMA, and World Health Organization (WHO) will serve as the primary sources of truth.

Background

mRNA vaccine technology utilizes synthetic messenger RNA to instruct host cells to synthesize antigen proteins, triggering a targeted immune response. The platform achieved widespread clinical deployment during the COVID-19 pandemic following regulatory authorizations for Pfizer-BioNTech's Comirnaty and Moderna's Spikevax. Regulatory agencies such as the US FDA and European Medicines Agency have continued to approve updated mRNA formulations for circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants.

While legislative proposals aiming to restrict or prohibit mRNA vaccine administration have been introduced by lawmakers in several US state legislatures, mRNA technology remains actively utilized and investigated in clinical trials for seasonal influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), HIV, and therapeutic cancer vaccines.