Pres. Trump has a lot of prominent anti-vaxxers in his circle, including RFK Jr. who has flip-flopped about whether he wants to see vaccines banned. So here's a market for a dozen common vaccines in the US.
Each of these markets will resolve YES if, any some time prior to the seating of the 120th congress (Jan 3, 2027), the vaccine becomes greatly more expensive, less covered by major insurance, or in sufficient shortage to cause people to miss scheduled doses, or no longer approved for significant populations (e.g. children or the elderly) that could previously get it in the US. Removal of mandates or recommendations will not be a YES unless it also results in changes in insurance coverage or availability. No distinction will be made as to whether the reduced availability is attributable to an obvious government policy, natural disaster, occult UFO conspiracy, or chance, because I don't want to suss out means and motives to resolve the market.
If I've missed an interesting vaccine, or otherwise messed up a choice, request it in the comments.
Because these criteria are subjective on the margin, I will not participate in this market.
Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated they are preparing to resolve the 'COVID items' part of this market soon. Please see the linked comment for details on their reasoning and the specific conditions they are looking for.
Update 2025-05-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the COVID items:
The creator indicates they are not currently at a YES resolution for these items.
As a reference point for assessing 'sufficient shortage', the creator used their own experience: successfully scheduling a COVID booster at a local CVS without special conditions suggested to them that this criterion was not met at that time.
Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the context of conflicting advice to insurers regarding vaccine coverage:
Resolution will consider which advice insurers adopt in practice.
The creator will primarily look for evidence of actual denial of coverage or access (that would have previously been available) to assess if criteria such as 'less covered by major insurance' or 'less available' are met.
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@nonnihil As a reference point, I went through the vaccine scheduling process at my local CVS this morning, indicating no special conditions whatsoever, and was able to schedule (and then cancel) a COVID booster.
Given the fraction of RFKJ talk that has been bluster so far, and given that the relevant committee meetings are still to come, I'm not yet at YES on these.
@nonnihil https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/health/cdc-covid-vaccines-children-pregnant-women.html suggests this may remain unresolved; we will see which set of advice insurers take. Per the market description, it's down to which set of conflicting advice insurers take and absent other information I'll be looking for evidence that somebody has actually been denied coverage or access that would have been available before.
