Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point prior to the end of Donald J. Trump's second presidential term (scheduled to end January 20, 2029, or upon his earlier departure from office), federal elections in the United States are formally abolished or indefinitely suspended by executive order, act of Congress, constitutional amendment, or extra-constitutional decree.

This market resolves to NO if Donald Trump completes his second term or departs office without federal elections being permanently abolished or indefinitely suspended.

Clarifications and edge cases:

• Temporary delays, emergency postponements, or rescheduled voting dates that still result in elections being conducted do not qualify for a YES resolution.

• Changes to voting laws, election administration rules, district boundaries, or eligibility criteria do not constitute the abolition of elections.

• Authoritative reporting from major news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press) or official government publications (such as the Federal Register or congressional records) will serve as the basis for resolution.

Background

Under the U.S. Constitution (Article I, Section 4; Article II, Section 1; and the Twentieth Amendment) and federal statute (2 U.S.C. § 7 and 3 U.S.C. § 1), federal congressional and presidential elections are established by law, with time, place, and manner administered primarily by the states subject to congressional oversight. The president lacks unilateral constitutional authority to postpone, alter, or cancel federal elections.

Political commentary and public discourse have periodically raised concerns regarding democratic backsliding, the invocation of emergency powers (such as the Insurrection Act), or potential constitutional crises regarding future election cycles.