Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2030, all COVID-19 vaccines lose regulatory approval, marketing authorization, or emergency use authorization (EUA) for commercial distribution in the United States, leaving no COVID-19 vaccine approved or authorized for sale or administration. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Resolution Details:

• "Pulled off the market" requires that no COVID-19 vaccine formulation (mRNA, protein subunit, viral vector, or other platform) retains active FDA approval or EUA for any demographic group in the U.S.

• The standard seasonal phase-out or replacement of older strain formulations with updated variant-matched vaccines does not trigger a YES resolution, provided at least one updated COVID-19 vaccine remains approved/authorized and commercially available.

• The primary source of truth will be official regulatory listings and public press releases on the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) COVID-19 Vaccines page.

Background

Over time, initial emergency authorizations and early monovalent COVID-19 vaccine formulations have been retired or revoked by regulatory bodies as updated formulas were introduced. Additionally, some manufacturers, such as AstraZeneca, voluntarily withdrew their COVID-19 vaccines from global markets due to surplus and commercial considerations. Multiple updated COVID-19 vaccines—including mRNA formulations from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, as well as protein-based vaccines from Novavax/Sanofi—maintain active FDA approvals. Regulatory frameworks and public health guidance surrounding COVID-19 immunizations remain subjects of ongoing policy debate and administrative review.