Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2040 (23:59:59 UTC), all COVID-19 vaccines have been completely withdrawn or recalled from the commercial market and public health distribution worldwide, or in the primary major regulatory jurisdictions (specifically: no COVID-19 vaccine holds active regulatory approval, authorization, or licensure from the U.S. FDA or the European Medicines Agency (EMA)).

• This market resolves to NO if on January 1, 2040, at least one COVID-19 vaccine remains approved/authorized for general or targeted use in either the United States or the European Union.

• "Pulled off the market entirely" means a complete cessation of availability or authorization for safety, efficacy, or commercial obsolescence across all manufacturers. Routine updates (e.g., reformulating strain compositions for seasonal variants, akin to annual influenza vaccines) or the withdrawal of a single manufacturer's product while others remain available do not count as pulling all COVID vaccines off the market.

• If combination vaccines (e.g., combined COVID-19 and influenza vaccines) are approved and commercially available, they count as COVID-19 vaccines remaining on the market.

• Resolution will be verified via official regulatory registries:

  • U.S. FDA COVID-19 Vaccines Directory

  • European Medicines Agency Authorized Medicines

Background

• Multiple COVID-19 vaccines received Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs) and subsequent full Biologics License Applications (BLAs) starting in 2020–2021 from regulators including the U.S. FDA, the EMA, and the WHO.

• Some early products have been discontinued or voluntarily withdrawn by their manufacturers due to reduced demand, updated strain recommendations, or competition (e.g., AstraZeneca withdrew its Vaxzevria vaccine globally in 2024, citing surplus updated vaccines).

• Public health agencies continue to recommend updated seasonal formulations targeting dominant circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants, and pharmaceutical developers are actively running clinical trials for next-generation COVID-19 vaccines and combination respiratory shots (such as mRNA-based flu/COVID combination vaccines).