Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2040 (11:59:59 PM ET), the United States federal government enacts a comprehensive prohibition that makes the manufacture, clinical use, or commercial distribution of all messenger RNA (mRNA) medical therapies or vaccines unlawful nationwide.

To satisfy the criteria:

• The restriction must be nationwide and apply to the general category of mRNA therapeutics/vaccines, not merely specific formulations, individual product approvals, or restricted sub-populations.

• The action must take the form of federal legislation signed into law, a final federal agency rule (such as by the FDA/HHS) with nationwide effect, or an executive order that has taken legal effect and remains in effect without being permanently stayed or struck down by the courts by the resolution date.

• Prohibiting government mandates, revoking emergency use authorizations, rescinding public funding, or state-level bans in select jurisdictions will not suffice for a YES resolution.

• If no nationwide federal ban covering mRNA technology is enacted and in force before January 1, 2040, the market resolves to NO.

Resolution will be verified using official US government records, including Congress.gov and the Federal Register.

Background

Messenger RNA (mRNA) technology forms the biological mechanism behind multiple approved vaccines, most notably COVID-19 vaccines produced by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, as well as an active pipeline of treatments in clinical trials for oncology, influenza, and other infectious diseases.

While state-level lawmakers in jurisdictions like Idaho have previously introduced measures targeting mRNA administration or prohibiting vaccine mandates, federal regulatory approval is governed by the FDA. Banning the underlying technology class nationwide would require substantial federal statutory or administrative action overturning established regulatory frameworks.