Dreamingpast avatar
Dreamingpast
resolved Jan 28
Is manifold markets a superintelligence?
Resolved
NO

subjective resolution based on arguments in the comments.

one base +ve arg: manifold markets platform polly has more aggregate knowledge and better estimates than any human on it and thus can make better decisions and should be called superintelligence

one base -ve arg: it is not manifold markets platform only which has the aggregated estimates but everyone on manifold markets. Each user can look up the prediction markets and see the aggregate knowledge.


Close date updated to 2023-01-28 5:29 am

Close date updated to 2023-01-29 5:29 am

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daniel avatar
Daniel
bought Ṁ10 of NO
  • A superintelligence surpasses ability of humans in all domains, I'd argue manifold is just good at predictions, and not necessarily better than dedicated experts in certain areas

  • Manifold market is bad at playing chess

  • Manifold market fails basic game theory in the self-resolving markets

  • Low liquidity in many markets means they either fail to find equilibrium or takes long to do so

Just 4 reasons

Duncan avatar

@daniel A superintelligence does not necessarily have to surpasses the ability of humans in all domains; that would be an AGI. Otherwise, I agree.

Dreamingpast avatar
Dreamingpast
predicted YES at 27%

@daniel "A superintelligence is a hypothetical agent that possesses intelligence far surpassing that of the brightest and most gifted human minds. "Superintelligence" may also refer to a property of problem-solving systems whether or not these high-level intellectual competencies are embodied in agents that act in the world."

Dreamingpast avatar
Dreamingpast
predicted YES at 27%

@Duncan Definitely. @Daniel would you call Google, Facebook, or Apple, Amazon, etc a superintelligence?

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Dreamingpast
predicted YES at 27%

@Dreamingpast They're definitely big players in our world and have a huge amount of knowledge base too big for a human to possess

Dreamingpast avatar
Dreamingpast
predicted YES at 27%

@daniel #3 is a very good point

Dreamingpast avatar
Dreamingpast
bought Ṁ1 of YES

Please provide arguments for either side in the comments