What Event Will Happen First: Jimmy Carter Passes OR A Lasting Bilateral Israel/Hamas Ceasefire? [Unlinked Market]
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Jimmy Carter, 99, Is No Longer Awake Every Day, Grandson Says: 'He's Experiencing the World as Best He Can'
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Netanyahu authorizes negotiators to enter detailed talks for ceasefire deal with Hamas
Biden says Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease-fire framework President Biden put out a statement saying Israel and Hamas had agreed to a cease-fire framework but admitted "there is still work to do." NBC News' Josh Lederman has details on the proposed framework and ongoing conflict. @traders
@traders Hamas denies it has withdrawn from hostage-truce talks after latest Israeli attacks
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Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Iran, sparking fears of wider war - WAPO
Jimmy Carter says he hopes to vote for Kamala Harris -CNN
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Netanyahu is unequivocal about ceasefire and hostage agreement with Hamas: ‘There’s not a deal in the making’
It's unclear how Sinwar's apparent killing could impact hostage negotiations, officials say From CNN's Eugenia Yosef and Jeremy Diamond
88%
Jimmy Carter Passes
10%
Lasting Bilateral Israel/Hamas Ceasefire

What Event Will Happen First: Jimmy Carter Passes OR A Lasting Bilateral Israel/Hamas Ceasefire?

Resolves "Jimmy Carter" If He Passes Before A Lasting Bilateral Israel/Hamas Ceasefire Criteria Is Not Met.

Resolves "Lasting Bilateral Israel/Hamas Ceasefire" Criteria Is Met Before Jimmy Carter Passes.

To Meet Bilateral Ceasefire:

  • Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas

  • Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days

  • Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities

  • Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.

  • MARKET EXTENDS UNTIL CONDITIONS MET


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Tagged UNLINKED MARKET In Title.
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Even with a long and full life at 100 I'm not going to bet any markets that win on a named person's death. I hope that Jimmy Carter and I both live to see a lasting ceasefire.

bought Ṁ212 Jimmy Carter Passes YES

I wonder if the latest hit (and the rumors that sinwar hardly communicates with anyone anymore) have made their leadership actually uncoordinated.

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Biden says Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease-fire framework

President Biden put out a statement saying Israel and Hamas had agreed to a cease-fire framework but admitted "there is still work to do." NBC News' Josh Lederman has details on the proposed framework and ongoing conflict.

@traders

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Upgraded to a PLUS market

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Subsidy @ 6k

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Looks like there has been 5,700 Mana Subsidy total added since market creation.

Why do so many markets involve Jimmy Carter dying?

@JaesonBooker I don't know, but...

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Tagged UNLINKED MARKET In Title.
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Why is this unlinked?

@Panfilo Mistake out of habit of doing this way. Probably could make another that is linked, or as I said to others, I don't mind if someone else does. (They can cross post it here too).

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Movie gif. Topol as Tevye in Fiddler on the Roof sets a jug in the back of a wagon as he rests his arms on top of it. Text, "Let me tell you!"

bought Ṁ20 Lasting Bilateral Is... NO

I assume a ceasefire doesn't have to be fully respected so long as neither side declares it broken? (that is, if rockets are launched during it but both sides kinda shrug them off it would still count)

@ShakedKoplewitz It does or else it is not a true ceasefire by the definition stated in the description "A call to terminate all hostilities"

@SirCryptomind I don't think we've ever had an actual ceasefire by that definition then (every ceasefire includes at least some rockets). Although they're less frequent so it's plausible for there to be a 10 day window without any.

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