What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Harris Elected
➕
Plus
224
42k
Oct 1
I will "UPGRADE" this to a PLUS Market once I get more Mana (Unless a generous user upgrades it themselves before me).
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Iran, sparking fears of wider war - WAPO
Top U.S. general in the Middle East as U.S. and Israel prepare for possible Iran attack -AXIOS
Harris Picks Walz AS VP [image]
Blinken says Israel has agreed to US proposal to close remaining gaps on ceasefire deal and calls on Hamas to do the same -CNN
Protests In Chicago Near Democratic Convention - LIVE Breaking News Coverage DNC (https://www.youtube.com/embed/-8xFxvRav4Y)
Netanyahu is unequivocal about ceasefire and hostage agreement with Hamas: ‘There’s not a deal in the making’
44%
Harris Elected
28%
Trump Re-elected
26%
Israel/Hamas Ceasefire
1.5%
Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire
What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Harris Elected
This market only resolves 1 answer
Resolves YES To The Event That Occurs First
  • To Meet Re-Election:

    • Harris must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.

    • Trump must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.

  • To Meet Bilateral Ceasefire:

    • Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas or Russia & Ukraine

    • Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days

    • Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities

    • Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.

    MARKET EXTENDS UNTIL CONDITIONS MET

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@DistinctlySkeptical you may wanna extend this a bit

reposted

Protests In Chicago Near Democratic Convention - LIVE Breaking News Coverage DNC


reposted

Harris Picks Walz As VP

I am considering Upgrading this to PREMIUM but don't have the Mana available yet ; would be cool to be a prize market @Joshua @SG

TV gif. From WandaVision: Agnes Harkness (Kathryn Hahn) gives us an exaggerated wink and tilts her head with a smile.

reposted

Upgraded to PLUS

reposted

Fixed the title. Thanks and apologies for the error.

Ṁ1,613

Ṁ1,644

Total subsidy pool: Ṁ1,657

Total subsidy pool: Ṁ1,664

Total subsidy pool: Ṁ2,065

@traders

Total subsidy pool: Ṁ4,509

Total subsidy pool: Ṁ5,062


Total subsidy pool: Ṁ5,346


Total subsidy pool: Ṁ5,349


@DistinctlySkeptical Can you change the title from "Biden re-elected" to "Harris elected"?

Hmm weird, must have not saved and I didn't realize it. Thanks everyone who pointed it out.

Assuming the ceasefires are uncorrelated with the election, this gives Harris inconsistently high odds

bought Ṁ50 Trump Re-elected YES

Alright fixed

Title says Biden, answer says Harris - please update as needed

Users, Feel Free To Add Relevant News And I Will Pin It To The Chart.