Will Jimmy Carter be alive when this market rolls a critical hit? [Round 2]
➕
Plus
108
Ṁ48k
resolved Dec 30
Resolved
NO

This market resolves No when Jimmy Carter dies. Until then, every Friday I will ask @FairlyRandom to roll a D20. If the result is 20, this market resolves Yes.

This is the second iteration of this market. The first time, the market resolved Yes in its second week.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
sold Ṁ6 YES

Rip

🤖

@MartyDettmann your random number is: 4

Salt: 187j9wuvm9w, round: 4663312 (signature a1cb6c54942d3ff2d086de8a389fda0fe32448d6b4ba8f8e58bbf0e11e6521c45d9b93129af20bb000cd070f49e78f5c0610d31bbc15d9ec1e6ff50190da60157af521b0192c551432fda33a32bbe46859a9fea321f68e35a676bb4ed1778ecb)

🤖

@MartyDettmann you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4663310 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4663312, salt: 187j9wuvm9w.

"Therefore, it would take about 13.5 weeks (roughly 3.4 months) for this market to have a 50% chance of resolving Yes."

Market close is Dec 27...is that intended @MartyDettmann ?

@dlin007 Yes, also see my reply to an earlier comment asking the same question:
"This market closes once a week. After rolling the random number, if it's not 20, I extend the market by a week."

The idea is that the market should be closed at the time the random number is rolled, otherwise someone might see the 20 rolled before I resolve the market and make a large Yes bet. It wouldn't hurt other betters but would reduce the amount of mana I get back from the market at resolution in that case.

I'll keep increasing my stake each week. Known winning strategy with a glaring weak spot ;->

🤖

@MartyDettmann your random number is: 9

Salt: fw39sx416w5, round: 4642949 (signature 8f251cf9810629c9126e9b18a0c0e235204c5136cc143d87fdead20334ae904beebd7a7134a2b12812ca9cf0c1e440eb07ed4d1d559c3809e74cb4f4d3963ffc16dd16554ae4f36e06c9509bd39dde9002abf288816b9f3fc30c98a29685c704)

🤖

@MartyDettmann you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4642947 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4642949, salt: fw39sx416w5.

🤖

@MartyDettmann your random number is: 17

Salt: 6klcae0mqhl, round: 4623533 (signature b6530b130edd2f8b669476f964a46ce41c447b9865dbac6cfc08a1a317ca55f061e7973f03550195a31d0fd080bdaea21946d9d154c40dfb434c9eb334a3a0859a94f44900ae513e501957409b7ef7cdbbfe654318cfbd08b513d0a0f7c9fb8e)

🤖

@MartyDettmann you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4623531 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4623533, salt: 6klcae0mqhl.

🤖

@MartyDettmann your random number is: 13

Salt: lhd545uo94i, round: 4602723 (signature 914e70c42c2aac7b0e4a026504bb8d40769968d4a9dbdd2f302303496ae2439381f6b3552715c34aee11656edd49ef14198eb95c522ef57ae164a7f3d5be0f3f40a2400f4f2e162a3f692e8152c3f5f5028b01548a34b087689a8065b1da5bb1)

🤖

@MartyDettmann you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4602721 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4602723, salt: lhd545uo94i.

🤖

@MartyDettmann your random number is: 15

Salt: 83zrzn1x9dn, round: 4584712 (signature 86eb0461a5fce9a6a47b734ecc2a4f031d3f51e03b046701cc2940b82ee97b5094713b0e268a7e887223048ad8b282f80ee11c57f3e69d4ee52f7576930c9f95e5a8e18d33e48fbee63d23e7a69081afe41439940dc5e8b0958eaedaa1fd7f1e)

🤖

@MartyDettmann you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4584710 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4584712, salt: 83zrzn1x9dn.

It seems like somebody correctly Bayes'd this market out against the Jimmy Carter Death Markets for 2024. There is no arbitrage to be made here today.

🤖

@MartyDettmann your random number is: 15

Salt: toeav1gvnj, round: 4562258 (signature 819122dd8e0b14de350a65e35c1b5908b1eff4ad106a3c34517cd022dc4b28293937446f4dc9498648fee498b140c666064e83346d03516d7f95db3f94d614517e63d77b233b4781bd0517d789f309fca805c7ef43ea8322528d0556ce8ab430)

🤖

@MartyDettmann you asked for a random integer between 1 and 20, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4562256 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4562258, salt: toeav1gvnj.

🤖

@MartyDettmann your random number is: 18

Salt: pqt98yl1oe, round: 4542106 (signature a64fd17e1d79388ff8b91c672df8419356638f9efa165fa3a3ac77dad3c40970f56cd975104e54a226f0d646efa45cad047f4e6b9847c5990289298d428615e602a99e70fb1c1d175117c42f60c196537cc66fa04f267a2837110e19cfb21482)

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules