Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?
137
closes 2060
46%
chance

Resolves yes if and when Donald Trump goes to prison.

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

When will Trump serve time?
Will Trump be indicted or charged again before October? (After the Georgia indictment)
jack avatarJack
7% chance
Will Donald Trump be ruled in contempt by any court for any reason during 2023?
Will Trump be convicted of any crime before the 2024 election / Will Trump be the Republican nominee for president?
How will Trump serve time?
Will Trump do time?
Gigacasting avatarGigacasting
30% chance
Will Trump die in prison?
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
19% chance
Will Trump be jailed by January 1st, 2024?
UncleBob avatarUncle Bob
20% chance
Will Trump spend any time in prison before he dies?
Duncn avatarDuncn
50% chance
Will Donald Trump be the 2024 nominee (now that he's been arrested in 2023)?
NcyRocks avatarN.C. Young
74% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030?
cy avatarcy
52% chance
Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?
Will Trump be gagged by a judge during 2023?
Will Trump receive a gag order by November 15?
Will Donald Trump be convicted of any crime by the end of 2024?
BruceGrugett avatarBCG
68% chance
Trump will be held in contempt of court through September
StrayClimb avatarCalvinball
4% chance
Will Trump plead guilty or be found guilty before Election Day ‘24?
Radicalia avatarRadicalia
59% chance
Will Trump spend at least one month in prison?
Gigacasting avatarGigacasting
45% chance
Will Donald Trump spend any time in prison before 2030?
IsaacKing avatarIsaac King
52% chance
Will Trump be elected President in 2024 / Will Trump serve time?
Sort by:
Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ200 of YES

note that the price of this market should be inflated, since it will take a long time to resolve NO if he never goes to prison (it says below that it resolves on death)

9 replies
Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicts YES

@MatthewLichti well, those markets don't have any tether to reality. This one does, in that you profit if it resolves YES, but if it resolves NO you likely won't profit for decades

MatthewLichti avatar
Matthew Lichtipredicts YES

@Conflux Why do you think this market is more tethered to reality? There's almost no money in this market. Even betting $1 causes a large price shift. No one is betting $1 based on calculations of what that $1 will be worth in 5 to 10 years. I'll miss out on $0.25 worth of interest I would have gotten if I invested in Mana treasury bonds.

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicts YES

@MatthewLichti some people care about their mana! This one is more tethered to reality because there's a chance it pays out. The AI market will either resolve NO in 2100 or YES if everyone's dead - neither of which matters

MatthewLichti avatar
Matthew Lichtipredicts YES

@Conflux I don't think anyone cares enough about such tiny amounts of Mana to bet strategically. There are other markets where you can bet enough for the amount you win or lose to have meaning, but this is not one of them.

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicts YES

@MatthewLichti well, I disagree - I think people do try to "win the game of Manifold" by increasing their amount of mana

MatthewLichti avatar
Matthew Lichtipredicts YES

@Conflux Why would they even bother betting on really illiquid markets? It's a lot of time investment for almost no mana.

Joshua avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ10 of NO

Sometimes I just want the numbers to be correct, though.

MatthewLichti avatar
Matthew Lichtipredicts YES

@Joshua Yes. I throw in 20 mana into an illiquid market because I think the current market probability is wrong. I don't actually care about winning 20 mana if I'm right because that's $0.20.

DarlenePope avatar
Darlene Popebought Ṁ10 of YES
Comment hidden
Lorxus avatar
Lorxus Mathfoxbought Ṁ50 of NO
Comment hidden
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

Does jail or house arrest count?

2 replies
DhruvRaghavan avatar
Dhruv Raghavanpredicts NO

@MartinRandall no, it has to be prison, as stated in the title

Joshua avatar
Joshuapredicts NO

There's a lot of these markets now so it's important we get into the gritty details for arbitrage: This is only when serving a sentence, right? Doesn't count if he visits someone else in prison?

Conflux avatar
Conflux

Does this resolve NO if he has not been to prison by Dec 25, 2025?

3 replies
DhruvRaghavan avatar
Dhruv Raghavanpredicts NO

@Conflux the resolution date is arbitrary i'll move it up

Conflux avatar
Conflux

@DhruvRaghavan Ok so when would this resolve NO? When he dies?

DhruvRaghavan avatar
Dhruv Raghavanpredicts NO