How is this 20% https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned

While this question implies 54% ❤

When will Trump serve time?

Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence. Markets close will be extended as needed. What counts? Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence. Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts. Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count. It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.

@jameso I think this market implies he will go to a physical jail. The other market takes any form of incarceration, such as house arrest.

https://manifold.markets/4mur1c4/will-donald-trump-be-or-claim-he-wa?r=NG11cjFjNA

Will Donald Trump be, or claim he was, sexually assaulted in prison by the end of 2026?

8% chance. Resolves Yes if Trump is sexually assaulted, or claims he was sexually assaulted. It does not have to be proven for this to resolve Yes. Resolves No if he is not sexually assaulted and does not claim he was.

Related: https://manifold.markets/derikk/will-donald-trump-be-executed-by-th

Will Donald Trump be executed by the end of 2029?

0.2% chance. Resolves YES if Trump is sentenced to death by any country or state and executed by the same. A legal process must be involved, so drone strikes/assassinations don't count.

Related: https://manifold.markets/aashiq/if-trump-is-imprisoned-before-2030

If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?

72% chance. Resolves N/A if Trump never goes to prison or is under house arrest post-conviction. Resolves NO if Trump serves prison time post-conviction. Resolves YES if Trump serves house arrest post-conviciton but NOT prison time. This is meant to tease apart the differences between markets like the following: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison https://manifold.markets/DhruvRaghavan/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-pri

note that the price of this market should be inflated, since it will take a long time to resolve NO if he never goes to prison (it says below that it resolves on death)

@Conflux That would matter a lot for real money markets, but I don't think most people here are thinking about the time value of mana. Otherwise no one would bet on whether AI wipes out humanity by 2100.

https://manifold.markets/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

31% chance. This market will resolve to no if AI has not wiped out humanity by the year 2100. If AI has wiped out humanity, the market resolution is on them. I made this bet with @tomchivers on the Browser Bets YouTube show. You can join in here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ak6HxFREPyc&t=1s

@MatthewLichti well, those markets don't have any tether to reality. This one does, in that you profit if it resolves YES, but if it resolves NO you likely won't profit for decades

@Conflux Why do you think this market is more tethered to reality? There's almost no money in this market. Even betting $1 causes a large price shift. No one is betting $1 based on calculations of what that $1 will be worth in 5 to 10 years. I'll miss out on $0.25 worth of interest I would have gotten if I invested in Mana treasury bonds.

@MatthewLichti some people care about their mana! This one is more tethered to reality because there's a chance it pays out. The AI market will either resolve NO in 2100 or YES if everyone's dead - neither of which matters

@Conflux I don't think anyone cares enough about such tiny amounts of Mana to bet strategically. There are other markets where you can bet enough for the amount you win or lose to have meaning, but this is not one of them.

@MatthewLichti well, I disagree - I think people do try to "win the game of Manifold" by increasing their amount of mana

@Conflux Why would they even bother betting on really illiquid markets? It's a lot of time investment for almost no mana.

Sometimes I just want the numbers to be correct, though.

@Joshua Yes. I throw in 20 mana into an illiquid market because I think the current market probability is wrong. I don't actually care about winning 20 mana if I'm right because that's $0.20.

Does jail or house arrest count?

@MartinRandall no, it has to be prison, as stated in the title

There's a lot of these markets now so it's important we get into the gritty details for arbitrage: This is only when serving a sentence, right? Doesn't count if he visits someone else in prison?

Does this resolve NO if he has not been to prison by Dec 25, 2025?

@Conflux the resolution date is arbitrary i'll move it up

@DhruvRaghavan Ok so when would this resolve NO? When he dies?

@Conflux yea