Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock | Manifold

Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock

14

370Ṁ1096

2501

93

expected

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

A stock meant to track how the market perceives Eliezer Yudkowsky's current p(AI Doom) at any given moment (from zero to 100 percent).

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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

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If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)

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Related questions

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Eliezer Yudkowsky Stock

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

P(Doom) - Yoshua Bengio

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

P(Doom) - Emmett Shear

If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?

Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

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