Will "The Winds of Winter" be published while George R. R. Martin is alive
Will "The Winds of Winter" be published while George R. R. Martin is alive
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Resolves YES if George R. R. Martin publishes "The Winds of Winter" prehumously. NO if he passes away with it still unpublished
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Interesting amount of space between this and "the final book" being published (the one by Jack). Though the Jack McPherson one has a similar estimate.
@EricMoyer How so? This book should be out in a year or two, and the last one will by all indication take 10+ years.
bought Ṁ50 NO1y
It won't be released in "A year or two"
It'll be released a year or two after GRRM dies and HBO buys out whoever to get ghostwriters to finish the books.
Fans pray to the gods that George R.R. Martin doesn’t die before finishing the series, only for their prayers to be answered by him turning into a wight and wandering the seven kingdoms for eternity.
bought Ṁ35 YES1y
Social security actuarial table says median lifespan remaining of 10.6 years. Adjust down for obesity, but adjust upward a lot for SES.
@Ophiuchus it's latin for "before ground" so if he's cremated instead of being buried, it still counts as prehumously
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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