It has been a long time coming. I am expecting an announcement first by GRR Martin, and then a release date thereafter. Subject of this question is the release date i.e. can actually buy it, as opposed to announcement. Dates can include Posthumous publication with input from other writers such as with wheel of time finale. I'll add some more year options as I get the budget, so "other" will shrink as the options increase, while still including "never".
Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Will resolve when on publication date (rather than announcement)
Resolves once, as a whole, to the single correct year; individual year options will not be resolved separately.
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...see note added above
@DanielPugh wait I don't think it makes sense to resolve to the announced release date, because what if he announces it'll release in 2026 but then it gets delayed and doesn't actually release until 2027
@tryingosling Because it’s a ‘sum-to-one’ market, aka a ‘independent multiple choice’ or just ‘multichoice’ market, and because of difficulties in unresolving the market if we ever resolve it wrong, manifold doesnt provide the ability to resolve options in the market at different times (they must all be resolved at once)
@Bayesian this market has a close date in year 3023, sound like I just got scammed of my mana then 😅
See also this market on another long-anticipated sequel:
https://manifold.markets/MaxG/will-doors-of-stone-the-third-book-5b12f67a7403?r=VG9zc3Vw