Will the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire be published before George R. R. Martin dies?
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Resolves YES if the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published before George R. R. Martin dies. The book must be described as the final, concluding book of the series in official announcements prior to its publication. (If it is announced that no more books will be published, but it is widely agreed that the series was not concluded, then that would not count.)

Otherwise, resolves NO when George R. R. Martin dies.

The close date of this market will be extended as necessary, it is not required that the publication happens before the close date.

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Actuarial table gives him 50/50 chance of living another 11 years. Adjust upward for obesity, downward for SES. 12 years since the last book, 2 books to go, 21% seems reasonable

I really wish I could be more optimistic like @EliGaultney but I just get the sense that George has alot of other projects that have taken priority over a Song of Ice and Fire, whether because they bring him more joy or because they bring him or the people in his orbits more profits. Besides HBO got to sully the world setting after book 5 so I wonder if just wouldn't feel like covered ground already to George, taking away what joy he might have had compared to crafting new stories. I took a look at Not A Blog and the there is only a single half hearted acknowledgement that he needs to finish Winds of Winter in recent history and the rest of the posts are promotions of his other, some times related sometimes not, projects.

Feel pretty confident on this one. He's been steadily plugging away at them, and I suspect he's a lot closer than most people realize. With all the pressure it serves him to just surprise release rather than do _anything_ that contributes to more unhealthy expectations. It's easier to write when everyone has given up around you and stops bugging you as much.
predicts NO
@EliGaultney Thank you for the hopium