[SPRING](https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.15486) uses GPT-4 to play a simple Minecraft-like game. By 2028 will an LLM in this setup or a similar setup beat the Ender Dragon in Minecraft?
(Note that I'm not going to count something like [Voyager](https://voyager.minedojo.org/), because it seems to me like they're making the problem too easy. I'll make a separate market for that)
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Related markets
Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?59%
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Related markets
Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?59%
By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model?70%
Will future language models converge on "what Einstein would have thought of Many-Worlds?" before 2036?46%
Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?45%
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?46%
Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2023?16%
Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 202471%
By the start of 2026, will I still think that transformers are the main architecture for tasks related to natural language processing?64%
In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?85%