
[SPRING](https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.15486) uses GPT-4 to play a simple Minecraft-like game. By 2028 will an LLM in this setup or a similar setup beat the Ender Dragon in Minecraft?
(Note that I'm not going to count something like [Voyager](https://voyager.minedojo.org/), because it seems to me like they're making the problem too easy. I'll make a separate market for that)
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By 2025 will there be a competitive large language model with >50% of the total training data generated from a large language model?70%
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Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?45%
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In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?85%