By 2028 will a language model beat the Ender Dragon?
4
91
แน65แน130
2028
43%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
[SPRING](https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.15486) uses GPT-4 to play a simple Minecraft-like game. By 2028 will an LLM in this setup or a similar setup beat the Ender Dragon in Minecraft?
(Note that I'm not going to count something like [Voyager](https://voyager.minedojo.org/), because it seems to me like they're making the problem too easy. I'll make a separate market for that)
Get แน200 play money
Related questions
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
53% chance
Will there be an AI language model that surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?
32% chance
Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025?
65% chance
Will any large language model be able to draw a game of TicTacToe against me by the end of 2024?
72% chance
Will an Open-Ended Embodied Agent with Large Language Models be able to complete The Witness (2016) by 2024?
32% chance
Will there be an LLM which can do fluent conlang translations by EOY 2024?
67% chance
By January 2026, will a language model with similar performance to GPT-4 be able to run locally on the latest iPhone?
64% chance
Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?
83% chance
How big will Mistral's known largest language model be? (2024)
Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?
45% chance