How many distinct companies will hold the spot for [my favorite language model for >= 1 contiguous month] in 2026?
3
Ṁ150Ṁ159Dec 31
6%
1
17%
2
26%
3
21%
4
17%
5
13%
6+
My favorite model to interact with personally as I e.g. do work, not my favorite to fine-tune or use for many calls via API to e.g. label data. If a company produces Model that is my favorite and then they produce Model+ which I switch to, that counts as contiguous.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@Bayesian Updated the description to clarify this some amount. I think that speed is a factor for personal use, open source is less of a factor although I do care a minor amount about privacy. I think it is unlikely being locally hosted will matter but it seems possible.
I think that OpenAI via GPT-4, Anthropic via Claude 3.5/6, OpenAI maybe via o1 family, and Google via Gemini 2.5 Pro would have qualified previously.
People are also trading
Related questions
DeepSeek will have the best language model in the world by a clear margin as of Feb 1 2026
4% chance
In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,
62% chance
Will AI (large language models) collapse by may 2026?
10% chance
Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?
79% chance
Thinking Machine’s first LLM release date
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
25% chance
We are going to start running out of data to train large language models in [YEAR]
Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2026?
82% chance