Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?
34
121
1k
2027
69%
chance

In 2020, 64% of Americans identified as Christian, according to Pew Research Center. This marked a continuation of a long-term decline in Christian affiliation in the U.S. This market asks traders to predict whether this downward trend will persist, specifically if the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian will fall below 60% by the end of 2026.

Resolution Details: The resolution will be based on the latest available data from reputable sources such as Pew Research Center or other credible surveys that are published by the end of 2026. The market resolves as "Yes" if the percentage is reported to be below 60%, and "No" if it is 60% or above. If no new survey data are available by the deadline, the market will resolve as invalid.

This market design gives a clear and direct question that can be objectively verified with upcoming survey data, making it straightforward for traders to research and forecast based on trends and changing demographics in U.S. religious affiliation.

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bought Ṁ50 NO

Next Great Awakening is due to come

@thepurplebull Haven't there only been two?

@thepurplebull what do you mean by this?

@PlasmaBallin Most historians say three or four. There’s a theory that the Christendom goes through decades-long periods of decline before a wave of religious enthusiasm that resets the cycle

@thepurplebull when was the last cycle?

sold Ṁ9 NO

@Dauur The Jesus Movement in the ‘60s

@thepurplebull thanks for sharing

I like the irony of the AI-generated image including text, presumably from the prompt, saying to please not include any text.

@PlasmaBallin Truly, human level AI has been achieved

reposted

👼

bought Ṁ50 YES

Another :)

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