Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

World•Science•Religion•Philosophy•Geopolitics

118

Ṁ967

Ṁ760

2027

69%

chance

ALL

In 2020, 64% of Americans identified as Christian, according to Pew Research Center. This marked a continuation of a long-term decline in Christian affiliation in the U.S. This market asks traders to predict whether this downward trend will persist, specifically if the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian will fall below 60% by the end of 2026.

Resolution Details: The resolution will be based on the latest available data from reputable sources such as Pew Research Center or other credible surveys that are published by the end of 2026. The market resolves as "Yes" if the percentage is reported to be below 60%, and "No" if it is 60% or above. If no new survey data are available by the deadline, the market will resolve as invalid.

This market design gives a clear and direct question that can be objectively verified with upcoming survey data, making it straightforward for traders to research and forecast based on trends and changing demographics in U.S. religious affiliation.

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the youth turnout rate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election be above 50%?

30% chance

Will 30% or fewer Americans trust the mass media in 2024, according to Gallup?

60% chance

Will the iPhone market share drop below 50% in the United States in the next 10 years?

65% chance

Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup?

34% chance

What percentage of school-age Americans (K-12) will be reported as having been homeschooled in the spring of 2024?

In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?

60% chance

Will there be a USA president that ends their term with an average approval of 55% or more in the next 20 years?

59% chance

Will 10% or more of Americans identify as atheist by 2040?

84% chance

Will the percentage of Americans who are religiously unaffiliated be greater in 2026 than it was in 2023?

71% chance

Will there be a USA president that ends their term with an average approval of 60% or more in the next 20 years?

Sort by:

bought Ṁ50 NO

Next Great Awakening is due to come

@thepurplebull Haven't there only been two?

@thepurplebull what do you mean by this?

@PlasmaBallin Most historians say three or four. There’s a theory that the Christendom goes through decades-long periods of decline before a wave of religious enthusiasm that resets the cycle