In 2020, 64% of Americans identified as Christian, according to Pew Research Center. This marked a continuation of a long-term decline in Christian affiliation in the U.S. This market asks traders to predict whether this downward trend will persist, specifically if the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian will fall below 60% by the end of 2026.
Resolution Details: The resolution will be based on the latest available data from reputable sources such as Pew Research Center or other credible surveys that are published by the end of 2026. The market resolves as "Yes" if the percentage is reported to be below 60%, and "No" if it is 60% or above. If no new survey data are available by the deadline, the market will resolve as invalid.
This market design gives a clear and direct question that can be objectively verified with upcoming survey data, making it straightforward for traders to research and forecast based on trends and changing demographics in U.S. religious affiliation.
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@PlasmaBallin Most historians say three or four. There’s a theory that the Christendom goes through decades-long periods of decline before a wave of religious enthusiasm that resets the cycle
