Justin Murphy predicts I'll reconvert to Christianity: https://twitter.com/jmrphy/status/1741150091874902347
For the purposes of this market (based on Justin's description), it cannot be liberal Christianity, it has to be a version of Christianity that requires some sort of sexual conservatism.
edit: Made this before seeing someone else beat me to it: https://manifold.markets/jacobsaysheyyy/will-aella-revert-to-christianity-w?r=amFjb2JzYXlzaGV5eXk
1,000
@JustinMurphy I put an order for 100k no at 50% and at 75%. we can talk about price if you want, and i could do bigger trades than that to, but I'd have to sell some other stuff first
While researching for this question, I came across this interesting snippet in a 2022 report from the Pew Research Center.
Most people don’t change their religious identity. But among those who do, the switch typically happens between the ages of 15 and 29. That is why this report focuses on switching among young Americans.
However, since the rise of the “nones” began in the 1990s, a pattern has emerged in which a measurable share of adults ages 30 to 65 also disaffiliate from Christianity. [...]
[...] Switching by religiously unaffiliated, older Americans into Christianity is not modeled in the projections because there is no clear trend in this direction.
I would like to collect the mana of YES holders sooner rather than later, so I created /HankyUSA/will-aella-convert-to-sexually-cons.
Yeah, the farther the deadline the higher the probability of the event occuring before the deadline. I didn't expect you to bet the other years up to 5%, but 1% for 2027 and 5% for 2028 looks strange. It's odd for the markets to conclude so much of the probability density is concentrated in 2028.
My sense of honesty compels me to remind you that I think you're wrong about this question and am encouraging you to make similarly bad bets on the other question so I can profit more off you even sooner.
My comment that started this thread linked to a question that is effectively the same question but for each year from 2024 through 2027. /HankyUSA/will-aella-convert-to-sexually-cons
Okay. Perhaps I am being overly precise. The amount I've bet on this definitely has me giving it more attention than other traders probably care to give it.
Oh lol I learned a little bit about the Less Wrong blog, rationality, polyamory, etc. and it’s comically immature. It’s also a cult. This bet is obviously going to read out positively, given enough time, as cults are inherently unstable. The biggest risk to this market is that it occurs in 2029+, but like, ~4 years is a long time.
But putting aside this market, read a bit more about this ‘rationality’ philosophy. It’s hilarious.