quoting CS Lewis!!

Religion is so absurd.

This should be tagged personal

@JustinMurphy Please do that again.

Do what? First time playing with this site. I understand betting markets but I don't fully grok the mechanisms and conventions on here...

Welcome!

If you make a large bet that moves the market by a large amount, you get much worse returns than if you only make bets that keep the market low (and in the case of your previous bet, the people betting against you got great returns).

The bid/ask is wide and in an illiquid market

Gotcha. It was just $30 so I didn't bother to look.

lol the trading on this is wild

I mostly just wanted to get it done because I said I would. I am not betting the farm...

I haven’t put any real dollars into this website so…

That said, I think you’re right about this market and 20:1 odds seems great

@JustinMurphy hey! I'll do a bigger bet than that if you want.

@JustinMurphy I put an order for 100k no at 50% and at 75%. we can talk about price if you want, and i could do bigger trades than that to, but I'd have to sell some other stuff first

I haven't really grokked how the markets get made exactly. I'm not super high conviction on this lol, enough to float the thesis and put a little on it...

While researching for this question, I came across this interesting snippet in a 2022 report from the Pew Research Center.

Most people don’t change their religious identity. But among those who do, the switch typically happens between the ages of 15 and 29. That is why this report focuses on switching among young Americans.

However, since the rise of the “nones” began in the 1990s, a pattern has emerged in which a measurable share of adults ages 30 to 65 also disaffiliate from Christianity. [...]

[...] Switching by religiously unaffiliated, older Americans into Christianity is not modeled in the projections because there is no clear trend in this direction.

I would like to collect the mana of YES holders sooner rather than later, so I created /HankyUSA/will-aella-convert-to-sexually-cons.

The timing makes this market more attractive on the YES side

Do you believe there is a 1% probability that Aella converts to sexually conservative Christianity before the end of 2027 and a 5% probability before the end of 2028? If so, what's so special about 2028?

Idk I think you’re being too precise. The longer the period, the higher the odds

Yeah, the farther the deadline the higher the probability of the event occuring before the deadline. I didn't expect you to bet the other years up to 5%, but 1% for 2027 and 5% for 2028 looks strange. It's odd for the markets to conclude so much of the probability density is concentrated in 2028.

My sense of honesty compels me to remind you that I think you're wrong about this question and am encouraging you to make similaroy bad bets on the other question so I can profit more off you even sooner.

Oh is there a 2027 market ? I was not aware. I still generally think comparing like 1 vs 5 % is over precise

My comment that started this thread linked to a question that is effectively the same question but for each year from 2024 through 2027. /HankyUSA/will-aella-convert-to-sexually-cons

Okay. Perhaps I am being overly precise. The amount I've bet on this definitely has me giving it more attention than other traders probably care to give it.

Oh lol I learned a little bit about the Less Wrong blog, rationality, polyamory, etc. and it’s comically immature. It’s also a cult. This bet is obviously going to read out positively, given enough time, as cults are inherently unstable. The biggest risk to this market is that it occurs in 2029+, but like, ~4 years is a long time.

But putting aside this market, read a bit more about this ‘rationality’ philosophy. It’s hilarious.

95% likelihood of a single person making a life decision in the next 4 years is like the worst risk/reward bet of all time

I asked before but didn't get a response. Perhaps you know. In the past 4 years what percent of atheists converted to "a version of Christianity that requires some sort of sexual conservatism"?

You’re asking for the base rate of people with relatively extreme views changing their mind ? Over 4 years ? it’s not 3% lol

any extreme view changing to any other extreme view? sure. But that's not what this market is about

Ok, what do you think the right base rate is for this market then ?

Also, keep in mind the math: at 95% odds, you’re up/down is +5.2% / -100% for ‘No’, or +2000% / -100% for ‘Yes’. The question is about a single persons personal view over 4 years. It’s genuinely not rational to bet on ‘No’ at 95% odds, almost no matter what the specific scenarios are. Like the IRR over 4 years is basically 0 with 100% downside risk. Even Aella should be putting money on ‘Yes’ as a rationalist lol

I'm sorry. I don't understand investment lingo. I don't know what an up/down is and didn't follow your math. I'm not demanding an explanation; I'm just letting you know that I don't understand you. My betting strategy is not perfect, but it is simple. Consider the probability of the event. If the probability according to the market is lower than what I think the actual probability is, then buy YES shares or sell NO shares. If the probability according to the market is higher than what I think the actual probability is, then buy NO shares or sell YES shares. Try not to bet more than I can afford to lose.

I'm trying to reason about the probability that Aella, an atheist, will convert to "a version of Christianity that requires some sort of sexual conservatism" by the end of 2028, which is about four years away. I think a very reasonable starting point would be to ask what percent of atheists converted to "a version of Christianity that requires some sort of sexual conservatism" in the past four years. I asked a question that is as relevant as it is specific. I did not ask "for the base rate of people with relatively extreme views changing their mind".

I'm not betting on this market because it's long term, and the end of the loans program killed long term markets. I was just pointing out that the logic you gave in a comment was terrible. 5% is one in twenty. One in twenty nerd atheists do not turn christian every four years

I just asked perplexity / chatgpt your ‘rate of atheists converting’ question and there was no answer. I assumed your question was rhetorical, and I’m not surprised there is no evidence-backed result out there (that I can find).

So without being able to google the answer specifically, I’m just looking at this as a bet on human behavior, and the amount that I’m putting at risk relative to the amount made for getting it right. In plain English, when the odds are like 95%, you don’t really make much when you’re right, but still lose your entire investment when wrong. And just from basic personal experience, people are weird and do unexpected things all the time. I would never give 95% odds to someone doing/not doing something over multiple years.

Either way - no harm in disagreeing! Best of luck

This obviously makes no sense though -- for example the chance of an average 20 year old dying over 4 years is ~0.1%. There are many life changes that are highly unlikely, and just betting on low probability things is not a winning strategy in general.

There are actuarial tables on mortality by age ; I don’t think the same exists for changes of opinion over time