Will the percentage of the global population that is religiously unaffiliated increase from 16.4% by 2026?

Question

Supporting Information:

Trend Analysis: Recent trends indicate a rise in the religiously unaffiliated population in developed regions such as the United States and Western Europe, where secularization is linked to higher levels of economic development and educational attainment.

Demographic Dynamics: Contrastingly, the religiously unaffiliated demographic is shrinking globally due to lower fertility rates compared to religious groups, especially in developing regions where religious populations are growing rapidly.

Regional Variations: Highlight how regional differences could affect this trend, with areas like Sub-Saharan Africa experiencing rapid population growth among religious communities, potentially offsetting increases in the unaffiliated demographic in more secular regions.

Potential Outcomes:

A continuation of the growth trend among the unaffiliated in more developed, secular regions.

A global decrease in the unaffiliated share due to high fertility rates in religious regions.

Stable or nuanced changes influenced by political, social, and economic factors.

Dig into more information here: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/12/21/key-findings-from-the-global-religious-futures-project/

Update 2026-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve this market based on the Pew Research report from June 2025 on religiously unaffiliated population change. The creator intends to resolve YES.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Mar 11, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.