5% atheist as of October '22. Resolves per the statistic in the below Wiki link as of close or, if no longer available, per a similarly reputable source.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_the_United_States#:~:text=People%20with%20no%20formal%20religious,%25%20Catholic%20and%202%25%20other.

2022-10-09: Will 10% or more of Americans identify as atheist by 2040? (Per the Wikipedia link in the description) → Will 10% or more of Americans identify as atheist by 2040?

Update 2023-01-07: I sold my shares (for a loss) and will no longer bet on this market since I will be resolving it.

Update: 2023-01-08: It seems the resolution decision might be more difficult now as the aforementioned Wiki link seems to no longer cite atheist %s in the U.S.

For a positive resolution, I will need to see either (i) sustained comments on Wikipedia that suggest 10% or more of Americans are atheist or (ii) 3 or more reputable polls that suggest the same.

For purposes of this market, I will include naturalism as atheism but not agnosticism.