People's Republic of China recognizes Taiwanese Independence by 2029
6
100αΉ5332028
5%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially recognizes Taiwan (ROC) as a separate & independent state by December 31, 2029. Resolution requires an official statement from the PRC government or its authorized representatives acknowledging Taiwan's sovereignty and independence, or a formal change to PRC law or policy that explicitly recognizes Taiwan as a separate, independent nation.
This market resolves NO if no such official recognition occurs by the deadline.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
US recognizes Taiwan by January 20, 2029?
15% chance
Will Taiwan remain independent of China through 2049?
40% chance
China to officially recognize Taiwan as a country before the end of 2028 π¨π³πΉπΌ
3% chance
Will a new Republic of China/Taiwan "government in exile" be formed by EOY2035?
48% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
29% chance
Will China unify with Taiwan by the end of 2030?
26% chance
[Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
13% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
35% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2028?
32% chance
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
53% chance