This question resolves as Yes if, before January 20, 2029, the United States recognizes the Republic of China (hereafter Taiwan) as a de jure sovereign state.
This considered to have happened if at least one of the following occurs:
The US President issues a statement that the US formally recognizes Taiwan as a sovereign and/or independent state. For example, a statement similar to President Barack Obama's statement of July 9, 2011 recognizing the Republic of South Sudan or President Joe Biden's statement of September 25, 2023 recognizing Niue would count.
The US appoints an ambassador to Taiwan and/or accepts an ambassador from Taiwan. The head of mission must be formally credentialed as an ambassador per the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (pdf), not a "liaison officer," "chargé d'affaires," or other lower level or non-official diplomatic ranking.
This will NOT necessarily resolve YES if
Trump makes vague statements about recognizing Taiwan to some degree that are partially retracted, unclear, not made in an official capacity, etc.
The US appoints something described as an ambassador but not officially an ambassador.
(part of the resolution criteria copied from Metaculus)
I will not bet in this market to remain objective.
If there is a dispute, I will consult with Manifold superusers to reach a conclusion in the spirit of the market.