extended to match the question timeframe

The market is substantially underestimating the probability of China flat out invading Taiwan.

Jaded Americans, who don't want anything that much and certainly would not die for a 3nm fab, are struggling to comprehend how an ethno-nationalist industrial superpower would use violence to retake what it sees as stolen property.

Other methods of reunification are possible (≈10% chance), but violence is being unfairly discounted due to recency bias and the popular but flawed reasoning that nuclear weapons will prevent direct great power conflict.