Will China unify with Taiwan by the end of 2030?
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17%
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Will resolve to yes if the PRC controls the island on Dec 31st, 2030.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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The market is substantially underestimating the probability of China flat out invading Taiwan.
Jaded Americans, who don't want anything that much and certainly would not die for a 3nm fab, are struggling to comprehend how an ethno-nationalist industrial superpower would use violence to retake what it sees as stolen property.
Other methods of reunification are possible (โ10% chance), but violence is being unfairly discounted due to recency bias and the popular but flawed reasoning that nuclear weapons will prevent direct great power conflict.
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