Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Greenland's population increases by at least 10% from its current level (approximately 56,000) within 1 year of Trump mentioning to offer direct monetary payments to inhabitants. Resolution will be determined by official population statistics from Statistics Greenland or the World Bank. If no formal offer of per-capita payments is made, the market resolves N/A.

Background

The Trump administration is considering paying each Greenland resident thousands of dollars as part of a bid to encourage the territory to secede from Denmark and join the United States, with U.S. officials discussing payment figures ranging from $10,000 to $100,000. Greenland's current population is approximately 56,000, and the country reached its peak population of 56,935 in 2005, after which population levels began to decline. Greenland's population pyramid has a stationary type, with countries having such pyramids typically experiencing declining birth rates and relatively low death rates.

Considerations

Greenland's population has been relatively stagnant for two decades, with recent years showing minimal growth or slight decline. A 10% increase would require reversing long-term demographic trends and attracting significant net migration—a substantial shift that would need to overcome the territory's harsh climate, remote location, and limited economic opportunities. The effectiveness of direct payments in driving population growth depends on whether they would be sufficient to offset these structural barriers to migration.