Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the first country where a beyond design-basis accident (BDBA, in german known as a 'Super GAU') occurs at a nuclear facility after the market's creation date. A BDBA is defined as an accident more severe than those considered in the facility's design parameters, potentially involving significant radiation release and environmental contamination. The resolution will be based on official reports from national nuclear regulatory agencies or international bodies such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). If no BDBA occurs within the market's duration, it will resolve as "Other."

Background

A beyond design-basis accident refers to an event that exceeds the safety margins established during the design of a nuclear facility. Such accidents are considered less likely but can have severe consequences, including substantial radiation release and environmental contamination. Notable examples include the Fukushima Daiichi disaster in Japan, triggered by a tsunami that exceeded the plant's design parameters, leading to core meltdowns and significant radioactive discharge. (nrc.gov)

Considerations

Several factors can influence the likelihood of a BDBA in a given country:

• Seismic Activity: Countries in seismically active regions, such as Japan and parts of China, may face higher risks of natural events leading to BDBAs.

• Aging Infrastructure: Nations with older nuclear reactors, like the United States and France, might encounter increased risks due to equipment degradation over time.

• Regulatory Oversight: The effectiveness of a country's nuclear regulatory framework can impact the probability of a BDBA. Countries with less stringent oversight may be more susceptible to such incidents.

• Geopolitical Stability: Regions experiencing conflict or political instability, such as Ukraine, may have compromised nuclear facility safety, elevating the risk of BDBAs.

Traders should assess these factors when making predictions in this market.