A "dirty bomb" is a dispersal mechanism like a conventional explosive attached to a radioactive material, intended to render an affected area undesirable, impassible, or uninhabitable.
Nuclear explosions (those relying on nuclear fission or fusion for their energy) do not count. Intended nuclear devices that malfunction do not count, even if they have the same effect as a dirty bomb.
This question resolves NO in four years if no dirty bomb detonates anywhere in the world. This question resolves YES based on the report of a newspaper AND a reputable scientific organization. I do not expect that to be a subjective criterion, but if it appears that subjective resolution is required I will sell any shares at current market value a full day before resolving this market.
Update 2026-08-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The explosive and radioactive material must be part of a single deliberately assembled device.
Bombing a pre-existing stockpile of radioactive material does not count, unless the attacker arranged to have the material placed there.
1,000Can you confirm that attacking any known site containing nuclear material with the intention of dispersal will not count, given that the radiological material will not be part of the munition [Edit:] munition/warhead/whatchamacallit?
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Yeah, that seems fair. The explosive and the radioactive material need to be part of a single deliberately assembled device, not just in the same place at the same time. So bombing a pre-existing stockpile of material wouldn't count, unless the party doing the bombing arranged to have the material there in the first place.