Chinese invasion of Taiwan mega market (30k subsidy)

Question

At Market creation manifold is pricing a ~40% chance of invasion by 2030. If an invasion occurred, this would certainly be the most important day in history so far in my life. Therefore details of how it might unfold deserve significant attention and analysis.

Unless stated otherwise, all the questions in this market are conditional on an invasion and will resolve NA if an invasion does not occur by market close (which may be extended).

I will trade to set some initial prices to recoup some of my mana, but otherwise will not trade.

See also:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-china-invade-taiwan?play=true)Update 2025-03-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Malacca Strait Blockade Clarification

The resolution criteria confirm that a blockade limited to Chinese ships or ships ultimately heading for China meets the condition for a blockade event.

Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Combat Troops Specification:

Type of Troops: Only U.S. troops serving in a combat role are counted.

Timing Requirement: These troops must be present in Taiwan on the day of the invasion.

Continuity Requirement: They must not be withdrawn before the invasion occurs.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, China sanctioned by US + Europe, followed by Taiwan blockaded before invasion and Malacca Strait blockaded are most likely. See the market for live updates (64 traders, as of Mar 16, 2026).