MANIFOLD
Will an AI make a new breakthrough on an unsolved math problem, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?
6
Ṁ1kṀ485
2027
46%
chance

Resolves YES if a breakthrough-level problem from the Epoch AI FrontierMath Open Problems benchmark is solved.

The benchmark classifies problems into four difficulty levels, with Breakthrough being the highest.

Note that to avoid contamination solved problems will be removed from the benchmark. So a solution only counts for this market if an AI solves the problem before any human solution is found.

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